This Week's Weather Forecasting 6th - 10th August 2012

[Te Puke Weather]

Issued by The MetService

Monday
Northland to western Bay of Plenty
Periods of rain, clearing tomorrow.
Remainder of Bay of Plenty, Waikato to Kapiti and the central high country
Areas of cloud. A few showers tomorrow.

Gisborne to Wairarapa
Cloud breaking this afternoon and becoming fine.
Wellington and Marlborough
Fine.

Nelson
Mostly cloudy today with a few showers in the western ranges. Fine tomorrow.

Buller to Fiordland
Occasional rain, with some heavy falls south of the Glaciers. Turning to isolated coastal showers in Fiordland tonight and elsewhere tomorrow.

Canterbury and Otago
Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in Otago, spreading elsewhere overnight, then clearing throughout tomorrow and fine breaks developing inland.

Southland
Mainly fine. Isolated afternoon or evening showers today.

Chatham Islands
Rain, easing to a few showers tomorrow.

Tuesday
A period of rain spreading to most places from the northwest, but remaining dry over the southern half of the South Island.

Wednesday
North Island, showers, though rain about Wellington. Mainly fine about Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. South Island, rain in the north and drizzle about South Canterbury and coastal Otago. Mainly fine elsewhere.

Thursday
North Island, a few showers for most places. South Island, rain in the east easing later. Fine or becoming fine elsewhere.

Friday
North Island, a few showers in the east, fine spells elsewhere, but cloud increasing later. South Island, fine in the west and south, cloudy in the north and east with some drizzle.

Chatham Islands
Remaining showers clearing on Tuesday with westerlies dying away.Rain developing late Wednesday with easterlies strengthening. Further rain on Thursday with winds tending southerly.

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[Derek]

Interesting situation for us this week – tomorrow there’s a low pressure system on either side of us, I think a lot of places will have quite a good day with little wind, though there’s a chance of some light rain or drizzle on the west coasts.

By Tuesday, the low in the Tasman has moved across and rain from it is going to spread from the west coasts down and across the north island with north-westerly winds and north-easterlies in the south island.

Wednesday sees the centre of the low sitting over the top of the north island, with rain or showers for the Auckland / Northland region and for the Wellington region and top of the south island. Possibly some drizzle around Canterbury (could even be snow at higher levels). Westerly winds for Northland, southeasterlies through Cook Strait, but nothing too serious.

Thursday see’s another low moving across in to the Tasman as this one moves away eastwards, and by Friday we’re back to almost the same situation as the start of the week, with a low either side of the country.

I think Thursday the showers or drizzle should clear from the Northland and Wellington regions, other places should have a fine day with little wind and Friday is looking like a good day pretty much everywhere.

So Friday is my pick for the best day of the week (and here's hoping it stays that way  )

Monday and Friday's midday charts from Ogimet attached..

[JennyLeez]

More heavy rain is on its way for soaked areas of New Zealand as twin lows move in from the Tasman Sea.
Forecasters say rainy weather will set in tomorrow and remain in place until Thursday, before giving way to another even deeper low over the weekend.
Weatherwatch.co.nz analyst Philip Duncan said the North Island would bear the brunt of the rain from both systems.
Already drenched areas such as Coromandel, Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne would be hit with more downpours, he said.
"Parts of western Bay of Plenty have had over half a metre of rain in the past four weeks, this rain will no longer be welcome by most North Islanders."
The second low, which is set to arrive at the weekend, could bring torrential downpours, Mr Duncan said.
However, the coldest days of winter are over and the storm is unlikely to be accompanied by low temperatures, he said.
Metservice meteorologist Daniel Corbett said the procession of weather systems will maintain an "unsettled theme" in the weather across New Zealand
Rain will hit northern and eastern New Zealand from Tuesday until Thursday, with some thunderstorms are likely in the northern half of the North Island, he said.
"With several different weather systems to come, it will again be a week where we keep the raincoats close to hand."
The end of the week will be drier, before another active system moves over the country, Mr Corbett said.

NZ Herald

[OhauitiWeather]

In today's weather video Philip Duncan says more rain is to hit the country, but with a Tasman Low moving away, we may have a very brief spell of settled fine weather before the next system moves in with rain...you guessed it, in time for the weekend.

These videos are made by nzherald.co.nz

Link to video:



WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/video-two-more-lows-way-week

[OhauitiWeather]

It's the news many New Zealanders won't want to hear - yet more rain is on the way, and less snow, as two large Tasman Sea lows move in.

WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters first mentioned these lows last week and latest predictions show the North Island will likely be exposed to the bulk of the rain.

"The first low and next set of rain bands will start Tuesday and then ease around Thursday, then the next bigger and deeper low arrives just in time for the weekend" says head weather analyst Philip Duncan. "This means more heavy rain for saturated regions like Coromandel, Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne".

WeatherWatch.co.nz says eastern and northern parts of the South Island may also receive heavy rain - a top up from heavy rain last week.

"Parts of western Bay of Plenty have had over half a metre of rain in the past four weeks, this rain will no longer be welcome by most North Islanders" says Mr Duncan, but he says some in the south may not mind one more top up after a fairly dry winter so far.

Rain from the first low may be heavy enough to cause further slips and flooding but WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters are not predicting widespread problems over the next couple of days.

The second low, which arrives at the weekend, will be bigger in size and have slightly deeper air pressure - and will reach up into the sub-tropics. "Latest computer models show more sub-tropical air over the North Island where it has been flowing off and on for the past three weeks, this means we have a much higher risk of slow moving torrential downpours and more of these mild days and nights".

Some regions have been several degrees above average this past week, in what is historically the coldest part of the year - and yet again most of New Zealand will be frost free this week.

10 days ago Philip Duncan predicted that the coldest part of winter had most likely already been and gone - with warmer weather usually creeping in from mid-August regardless of the current warm spell. "Almost exactly a year ago we had snow flakes falling in Auckland City - this year the city is experiencing sub-tropical downpours, double digit overnight lows and mostly warm days".

While snow storms and frosts are possible right up until October in New Zealand, the chance for prolonged cold spells is rapidly fading. "We have over an hour more sunlight today than we did on the shortest day of the year back in June and every week that goes by the sun feels warmer and stays up a little longer".

WeatherWatch.co.nz says the forecast around the Central Plateau ski fields will offer a mix of rain and snow over the coming week but no significantly heavy snow falls to lower altitudes.

In July WeatherWatch.co.nz predicted a wet and warm first half to August and the latest forecast is that the second half of August still looks set to be drier than the first half with a potential high for northern New Zealand next week. Mild weather is also expected although overnight lows will likely drop again, as they return to more normal levels for this time of year.


- WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/incoming-another-2-big-lows-within-5-days

[OhauitiWeather]

The low currently moving towards New Zealand will sit out west tomorrow with a west to northwesterly airflow coming around the top and a south to southeasterly airflow around it’s southern edge.



Therefore skies are going to be cloudy on the east coast of the South Island with rain, dry periods at first in the morning north of Christchurch however, rain in South Canterbury and north Otago will be heavy at times. Heavy areas of rain spreading to other hilly areas north of South Canterbury in the evening. Skies clearing up on the West Coast during the day.

The North Island should get some dry weather again at first however showers again by mid morning in the west becoming heavy at times, north of Taranaki there is a risk of thunder. Mostly fine in the east with light winds, showers south of Hawkes Bay in the afternoon however.

The wet weather will gradually clear on Thursday then on Friday a ridge delivers a spell of settled dry weather for all with light winds. On Saturday northerly quarter winds pick up with rain entering Northland ahead of the next incoming low, wet weather becomes more widespread across most of the country on Sunday.

Areas of the West Coast in the South Island look to escape wet weather for the second low especially south of Greymouth due to the east to southeasterly airflow so if your planning any trips this coming weekend it could be a good destination.


By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/low-out-west-wednesday

[OhauitiWeather]

Heavy rain is likely to affect the South Island’s east coast tonight through till tomorrow. More specifically we have heavy rain at the moment in parts of Mid Canterbury, South Canterbury and about the Kaikoura Ranges.



The rain in South and Mid Canterbury will ease tonight however about the Kaikoura Ranges and coastline heavy rain is likely to continue not letting up till later tomorrow afternoon. Also from about now heavy rain is likely about North Canterbury, especially on the foothills easing around midday tomorrow.

From now through till midday tomorrow a further 30 to 60mm is expected about the foothills of Canterbury, the higher 60mm figure more for the foothills in North Canterbury. A further 80 to 100mm about the Kaikoura Ranges and coast till later tomorrow afternoon then clearing.

Friday will be more settled as a weak ridge lies over us, then on Saturday the next incoming low ramps up the wet weather once again. Heaviest falls are likely to be in the north and east of the North Island late on Saturday and on Sunday, for the rest of the week the heaviest falls will likely be in the east of New Zealand easing on Friday before yet another low pressure system.

Homepage image / Thursday 9th August midday rain map, weathermap.co.nz

By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/heavy-rain-south-island%E2%80%99s-east-coast

[OhauitiWeather]

More heavy rain is coming with WeatherWatch.co.nz and other forecasters indicating rain warnings may again be issued to northern and eastern parts of New Zealand - the same regions hit by frequent heavy downpours, slips, flooding and road closures over the past month.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says while more heavy rain is coming, there will be some sun and warmth too - even if only briefly.  "The North Island will especially notice the warmth as this next very large low moves in - this time pulling warm air down over parts of the country from as far north as near New Caledonia".

Mr Duncan says days will be mild with nights in the north especially warm for this time of the year.

"The current low will gradually weaken over the next 24 hours and so Friday and parts of Saturday may well be spring-like yet again with highs in the late teens, possibly even 20 if that warm northerly kicks in before the rain clouds do on Saturday".

Mr Duncan says the next low is sizeable but not especially nasty.  "It will cover most of the Tasman Sea then bring in heavy rain during Saturday and Sunday for the North Island and Sunday and Monday for eastern areas of the South".

WeatherWatch.co.nz says authorities should be prepared for more slips, flooding and potential powercuts with the ground saturated now in many regions.

Cormandel Peninsula, western Bay of Plenty and the Gisborne regions appear to be worst hit by heavy rains recently but slips and flooding have also affected roads in Marlborough and Canterbury.

The warm weather won't be for everyone though.  South Island weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson says more snow is coming for parts of the South Island - but no where near sea level.  In a pattern that has surfaced a number of times in recent weeks a cold south easterly wind will blow rain and only single digit highs to places like Canterbury and coastal Otago early next week with that rain turning to snow for the skifields.

"Snow is expected down to 600m in Canterbury with patchy rain or drizzle for Christchurch on Monday" says Mr Wilkinson.  He predicts the Garden City will only reach 8 degrees on Monday - but overnight lows won't be brutal, dropping to around 5 or 6 degrees.

The sou'easter will have the reverse effect of the nor'wester for those on the other side of the Southern Alps.  The winds will dry out and warm up as they climb and descend over the ranges bringing warmer, sunnier, weather to the West Coast once again this year.

- WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/more-heavy-rain-coming-first-some-sun

[OhauitiWeather]

New Zealand will be between two low pressure systems tomorrow, technically speaking it will be an area of high pressure but it’s not really that high getting to 1012 hectopascals for most, up to 1014 in Northland. Just a quick fact, 1 hectopascal is the same as 1 millibar.



The result being we’ll have a settled day tomorrow over the country with light winds, watch for morning fog about the Central North Island and Waikato. There may be some remaining showers in the morning about the east coast of the North Island however they’ll clear with sunny breaks increasing and southwesterlies easing. There will most likely be some cloud about South Westland also with the risk of some drizzle in Fiordland.

Temperatures will be pleasant in most regions for a winters day. 15 to 16 can be expected about the Bay of Plenty, about the coast north of Taranaki, also north of Auckland. 13 to 14 degrees elsewhere.

13 to 14 can be expected in most South Island places, perhaps a degree or two cooler about Southland and Central Otago.

Homepage image / Friday 10th August midday rain map, weathermap.co.nz

By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/between-systems