This Week's Weather Forecasting 9th to 13th July 2012

[JennyLeez]

Brighter forecast for second half of school holidays.
by Weather Watch.

It may not be perfect for everyone on every day but the overall forecast for next week is "far more positive" for the school holidays says WeatherWatch.co.nz's head weather analyst.
Philip Duncan says a very large high is slowly drifting in from southern Australia and looks set to hang around for most of next week.

"Next week the high will cross the country and bring settled weather, frosts and some fog patches across New Zealand.  It will be mostly dry and much sunnier than this week has been for many parts of the country".
Mr Duncan says some anticyclonic gloom - low cloud trapped under the high - may affect a few coastal areas but the overall picture is sunnier, drier and calmer.
By the end of the week the high will start to depart with a strengthening west to north west wind developing and some rain is expected up the West Coast.
WeatherWatch.co.nz says severe weather is unlikely across the country over the next 5 days however says winds could be strong around Gisborne this weekend and large swells may return to parts of Hawkes Bay and Gisborne on Sunday as winds strengthen out at sea.
Black ice, which appeared to be responsible for a bus crash in Te Anau yesterday, will still cause problems across some inland Southland and Central Otago roads.

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[JennyLeez]

Issued by MetService
Tuesday
North Island, showers from East Cape to Wairoa clearing,but still the odd shower in the far north, mostly fine elsewhere. South Island, mainly fine with morning frosts and fog areas, but cloudy with patchy drizzle in South Westland and Fiordland, and a few showers near Foveaux Strait.

Wednesday
North Island, fine apart from cloudy periods and patchy late drizzle from Taranaki to Wellington. South Island, cloudy periods in the west, mainly South Westland or Fiordland with some rain or drizzle there, mainly fine in the east.

Thursday
North Island, fine apart from cloudy periods and patchy drizzle from Taranaki to Wellington. South Island, rain or drizzle in the west, mainly fine in the east.

[JennyLeez]

Update from Weather Watch:
A large, slow-moving ridge of high pressure over the Tasman will keep most of New Zealand's weather dry for a few more days.
Things will begin to change on Thursday when the high moves to our north-east. The position, and shape of the high will set up a strong on-shore flow for the West Coast. This will likely bring rain to the West Coast by midday Thursday. Nelson could see some rain by late Thursday or early Friday.
On Friday, a low pressure system will slide off Australia's southeast coast and head our direction. This will add fuel to the fire and the winds and rain will increase for the western South Island. Heavy rainfall is possible about the West Coast. The eastern half of the island should remain dry.
On Saturday, more wind and rain is expected for the South Island. Again, the best chance for rain will be about the West Coast, although rain chances could spread across the rest of the island after sunset.
This whole time, the North Island has remained quite settled.  From today until Saturday, it should continue to be dry for the NI. That is likely to change on Sunday as the low pressure system starts to pass to the south of the South Island. Wind and rain is likely to spread across the island during the day. Some heavy rainfall is possible on the northern and southern ends.  Some heavy rain is also possible on Sunday in Nelson.  The rest of the South Island will continue to see wind and periods of rain, although the southeastern part of the SI will have just a small chance for rain.

[OhauitiWeather]

In Monday's weather video Philip Duncan talks about the big high that's moving in for New Zealand and about the risks for fog patches and frosts across the week ahead.

We also look at the long range forecast into the weekend which shows a low heading towards us from the south of Australia.

Link to Video:



WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/video-big-highs-spreads-over-nz-ahead-weekend-low

[OhauitiWeather]

An anticyclone is still controlling our weather tomorrow and will continue to do so till Thursday when it begins to get pushed out of the way by a building northerly airflow in the Tasman Sea.

Mostly sunny weather can be expected over the North Island with light winds in all areas tending northerly or northwesterly about Wellington and the Kapiti Coast, a chance of morning fog in sheltered inland areas but quickly clearing in the morning. There may still be some pesky cloud along the east coast north of Hawkes Bay with the chance of one or two remaining light showers about Gisborne in the morning. Also about the eastern coastline of Northland and about the Coromandel there may be some cloud with the low risk of a few showers. Frosty to start in many areas, high’s climbing up the the mid teens in Northland. Lower double figure high’s elsewhere.

The South Island should generate sunny weather for most places with light winds, a few cloudy areas along the West Coast however and showers in Fiordland. Sunny areas and some cloud about Southland with northwesterly breezes. Low double figure high’s in most areas perhaps breaking into the teens in Nelson.

Main features to watch this coming week are heavy rain for the West Coast of the South Island on Friday then again later in the weekend.


Homepage image / Tuesday 10th 2012, midday rain map - weathermap.co.nz


- By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/outlook-tuesday

[OhauitiWeather]

The big area of high pressure that has provided much of the country with settled weather this weekend, will continue to do so for the early part of the next week.  In fact, most of the North Island could stay dry all week long.  Parts of the South Island are a bit of different story.

On Monday, a few shower chances will pop up about Northland.  Shower chances will continue for Hawkes Bay and Gisborne.  A few chances for showers will also show up for the deep south.  Otherwise, a dry day is expected for Monday.

Tuesday looks like a dry day across the country as the core of the high starts to move across New Zealand.  A few shower chances for the deep south can't be ruled out.  However, I think it's much more likely that even Southland will see dry weather.  Any precipitation that does develop, should hold off until close to sunset.

On Wednesday, precipitation chances start to go up for Southland and Otago.  Dunedin and Invercargill will probably stay dry, but as you head inland there could be some rain or snow showers.  The rest of the country is looking at another dry and settle day.

For Thursday, a frontal boundary starts to work its way up the South Island.  This will bring a good chance for rain to the southern and western sections of the South Island.  The rain may make it to the very southern part of the North Island late Thursday night.  Otherwise the eastern SI and most of the NI are looking settled for Thursday.

On Friday, rain chances look to remain across the South Island.  Even the eastern side of the island could see some rain.  Some heavy rain is possible for the West Coast.  North Island looks to remain dry.

At this point, it looks like that frontal boundary will slide onto the North Island on Saturday.  This will make for a pretty wet start to next weekend for North Islanders.


By WeatherWatch Analyst Howard Joseph
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/unsettled-weather-slowly-returns-late-next-week

[einzack]

some rather large amounts of rain are currently forecast for the west coast over the weekend.
if this eventuates we could be in for some fun and games.

[OhauitiWeather]

In Wednesday's nzherald.co.nz weather video Philip Duncan says the sunny weather is "about to go out the door" but "not for too long".

In a nut shell we have a large high centered over New Zealand but this is starting to move away to the east - allowing more cloud to come in, and a low with associated rain bands for this weekend and early next week - all ahead of the next high expected in seven days time.

These video's are made by nzherald.co.nz - click here to send them feedback directly.  http://dynamic.nzherald.co.nz/feedback/email.cfm?user=onlineeditor

Link to Video:


WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/video-sunny-frosty-weather-leaving-nz-briefly-over-next-few-days