Statistical Forecasting Earthquakes in ChCh

[TokWW]

I was just looking at Chris Crowe's site and watching the recent events and looking at the quiet time now in the top row and even the second row, but compare it with the right hand end of the third row and one can't help be forgiven for thinking there might be a R4 earthquake due in the next day or so.

We'll see what happens.  At some stage, these periods have to start lengthening as the energy left in the fault lines subsides and it all relaxes to a more stable platform.

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[TonyC]

I must ask Chris some time (he's a mate of mine and got me interested in weather stations originally) where he's getting his info from of late. He is recording tremors that are not showing up even  on the Geonet beta site such as the 2.7 at 11.29 last night. The beta site recorded a 2.7 at Collingwood earlier in the day.

[TokWW]

Actually, looking back over the June back to May line, it shows that every time there has been an R4 quake, there has been another within 12-24hrs of almost a similar magnitude following the first but slightkly less in value.  Haven't checked each of those pairs for similar or different fault lines though.