This Week's Weather Forecasting 25th - 29th June 2012

[JennyLeez]

Looking at the week coming I thought we better make a start on the week's forecast topic.
Issued byMetService 10:35am Friday 22 Jun 2012

Monday
North Island, a few showers in the west becoming frequent for a time. Mainly fine in the east, but a few showers possible later. South Island, rain developing in the west, and showers spreading into Southland and Otago, then a few in Canterbury later.

Tuesday
South Island, showers in the west, mainly fine in the east,but some showers later in Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa. South Island, rain or showers for most, bringing snow to low levels in the south and about the hills further north.

From Weather Watch so far:

WeatherWatch.co.nz says the cold blast next week may see snow again falling to near sea level - but it may be more of a Southland and Otago event than a Canterbury event, although it's too early to be sure.
At the time this story was written the current data used by WeatherWatch.co.nz was predicting Invercargill would only reach 4 degrees on Tuesday and just 6 on Wednesday with hail, sleet, and thunderstorms all a possibility - if those temperatures prove correct then snow to sea level may be likely.



Thanks Weather Zone.

• Tweet

[Mark]

Yes Jenny looks more like a Southland and Otago event than a Canterbury event.
The winds look like they are going to br more WestSouthWest which means we in Canterbury get little rain.
On wednesday it could be wet and very cold though.

[OhauitiWeather]

For the last few days, we’ve been tracking a potentially potent cold snap for the South Island that was expected to arrive early next week.


At this time, it looks to be on schedule.

Southland and Otago will bear the brunt of the cold snap when a strong low to our south pulls a cold front across the country on Tuesday.

Temperatures will drop in the deep south with some locations struggling to get above 0 for daytime highs.  The forecasted high in Queenstown on Tuesday is just 3.  Invercargill is looking at 4 for a high.  Dunedin could get as warm as 7.

There will be a lot of precipitation with this system as well.

Snow showers are likely in Queenstown along with heavy rain in the deep south and the west coasts of both islands.  The deep south could also see some thundery falls.

WeatherWatch.co.nz Head Analyst Philip Duncan says the front is expected to affect the west coast of the North Island as well, including Auckland.

Aucklanders could expect cold showery conditions as the front moved up the country, with temperatures dropping from an average of about 17 to 13 degrees during the day in the middle of the week.



Homepage image/  Nhing Aquino

-WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/wintry-mix-track-si

[JennyLeez]

Update:
Issued by MetService 10:44am Sunday 24 Jun 2012

Tuesday
North Island, showery in the west, a few light falls reaching the east coast. South Island, rain in the west, heavy for a time. Cold and showery in the south, bringing gales and snow to low levels. Some rain in Nelson and fine elsewhere.

Wednesday
Rain or showers in the west and the far south, and mostly fine in the east.

Thursday
Rain or showers in the west easing, a few showers about the North Island east coast, mostly fine elsewhere.

Friday
Becoming fine over much of the country.

Chatham Islands
Showers on Tuesday with freshening northwesterlies. Showers and strong cold westerlies on Wednesday. Winds turning strong southwest on Thursday. Showers and strong cold southerlies on Friday.

[Rwood]

Ironically, next week's cooler W-SW conditions could get our local sunshine back on track again.
The rcent milder spell has been wet and very dull.

[OhauitiWeather]

Things could start off a bit wet across the country tomorrow morning.

A quick moving boundary will bring a patch of rain to both islands during the morning hours.  Most of the precipitation should be off the North Island by mid-afternoon with a just a few spotty showers about the lower regions.

The South Island will exchange the morning rain from one boundary for afternoon and evening rain from another boundary.  This second boundary will be the cold front that we’ve been talking about for the last few days.

By evening the western and southern sections of the South Island will have a pretty good chance for precipitation.  Some heavier falls are possible about Westland and Nelson tomorrow night.

The cold, severe gales and heavy snow that are possible with this system will likely hold off until Tuesday.  The deep south of the South Island is still at the greatest risk for heavy snow and severe gales on Tuesday.  Inland Canterbury could also see severe gales.


Homepage image/ Weather map valid 6:00 am Monday

--WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/mondays-rainy-outlook

[JennyLeez]

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR HAWKES BAY, WAIRARAPA, WESTLAND, SOUTHLAND, FIORDLAND
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 0956hrs 25-Jun-2012

GALE WESTERLIES ABOUT CENTRAL HAWKES BAY TODAY. A DEEP LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT, BRINGING HEAVY RAIN,
SEVERE GALES AND, LATER, SNOW TO PARTS OF THE SOUTH ISLAND.

Strong westerlies cover central parts of the North Island, with gales
in the lee of the Ruahine Ranges about central Hawkes Bay and the
Tararua District. This watch is for the possibility of severe gale
gusts north of about Pahiatua and south of Hastings during Monday
afternoon and evening.
During Monday evening, a deep low is expected to approach the lower
South Island. This low is forecast to pass south of the country
during Monday night and Tuesday morning, with an associated front
moving quickly northeast over the South Island.
As the low passes south of the country, gale westerlies are expected
to spread over the far south of the South Island from about midnight
Monday. In addition, strong northwesterlies are expected ahead of the
front, with gales about inland parts of the South Island overnight
Monday to Tuesday, which briefly spread over the lower North Island
Tuesday morning. A severe weather warning has now been issued for
southern parts of Fiordland, Southland and Otago, inland Canterbury
and Marlborough, Wellington and Wairarapa.
Heavy rain is expected to develop about Westland this evening, as the
front moves northward, with locally intense falls in thunderstorms
for a time. Rain accumulations are expected to approach warning
criteria about the ranges, but amounts are currently expected to be
too marginal to warrant a full scale warning. The rain is forecast to
ease later on Tuesday.
Cold southwesterlies spread over the South Island during Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with snow lowering to low levels in the far
south.
This watch is for the possibility of snow accumulations reaching
warning criteria above 200 metres about Fiordland and Southland from
Tuesday afternoon through to early Wednesday morning.

[OhauitiWeather]

A rapidly deepening low is earning the name weather bomb as it' s expected to head across the water just south of the South Island later tonight.

Emergency Management Southland has urged people in all coastal areas of Southland, including Invercargill, to check their property today in preparation for the coming storm, and be ready for power cuts overnight.

Winds are expected to picking up tonight and Stewart island appears to be in the firing line with storm force damaging winds possible however Southland and Fiordland could also see very high winds with severe gales expected.

WeatherWatch.co.nz head weather analyst Philip Duncan believes the low rapidly deepening and nearing the South Island is a weather bomb.
Speaking with Jamie MacKay on Radio Sport's Farming Show earlier this afternoon he said the low that will be lying near Southland and a big blow is looking likely.

"This is looking like a weather bomb, meaning it will drop over 24hPa in 24 hours. It will have hurricane force winds circling around it and the only good thing is that the centre of the storm itself looks unlike to directly hit New Zealand but it will brush the South Island".

Foveaux Strait is expected to see significant swells with the arrival of the winds and Bluff could also see waters cut up very rough near the town.

WeatherWatch.co.nz is closely monitoring the situation.
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/weather-bomb-form-just-south-mainland

[OhauitiWeather]

Philip Duncan and nzherald.co.nz bring you the latest on the storm that is rapidly developing in the Southern Ocean today - and will become a weather bomb overnight (dropping over 24hPa in 24 hours).

WeatherWatch.co.nz says damaging winds up to hurricane force are expected in some parts of the South Island and lower North Island over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Please refer to MetService for latest warnings.





WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/video-significant-storm-brush-lower-south-island

[JennyLeez]

It sounds a little complicated but the centre of the low (where the hurricane force winds are) is already starting to clear the country - while at the same time gale force winds, squalls and thunderstorms are still moving in.
Where is the main front?
Where are the thunderstorms?
Where will it snow?
What are the chances of a tornado forming?
Is this a storm in a teacup?

The questions and answer are on here on Weather watch.

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR HAWKES BAY, WAIRARAPA, SOUTHLAND, NELSON
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 0825hrs 26-Jun-2012

SNOW IN THE WEST AND FAR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH ISLAND. WESTERLY GALES
ABOUT CENTRAL HAWKES BAY.

A strong cold southwesterly flow is spreading over the country this
morning and afternoon (Tuesday), with snow to low levels about
western parts of the South Island. Snow is expected to near sea level
about Fiordland and southern Southland and to about 200 to 300 metres
about Westland and Buller, with significant accumulations of snow
expected. A heavy snow warning is in force for Fiordland, southern
Southland, Westland and Buller.
This watch is for the potential for heavy snow about remaining parts
of Southland above 200 metres until early Wednesday morning,including
Stewart Island and the Catlins, and about western parts of Nelson
above 300 metres from Tuesday evening to early Wednesday morning.
In addition, very strong westerlies are expected to affect the lower
North Island from Tuesday afternoon until Wednesday evening. This
watch is also for the possibility that strong westerlies could rise
to severe gale at times about central Hawkes Bay and the Tararua
District, especially during the period from Tuesday night to
Wednesday morning.

[OhauitiWeather]

Philip Duncan and nzherald.co.nz bring you the latest on the wintry weather - what's coming in this afternoon, evening, overnight and for the next several days.



- WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/weather-video-latest-winter-storm

[JennyLeez]

An anticyclone will move over the country tonight paving the way for sunny
clear skies tomorrow in most places however there is one last sting in the
tail of the departing southwesterly airflow and that is the potential for
heavy frosts to develop tonight and tomorrow morning especially in inland
areas around the country with Central Otago looking to be hit the heaviest.
WeatherWatch.co.nz analyst Aaron Wilkinson says:

"Central Otago could expect lows of around –8 degrees tonight so black ice
will be an issue on the roads in the morning, ice on the roads could still
cause issues for most of the day in areas sheltered from the sun.”

Further severe frosts are likely on Sunday and Monday mornings aswell
however by Tuesday morning an approaching depression from the Tasman Sea
will bring a northerly airlfow over the South Island with higher overnight
temperatures.

WeatherWatch.co.nz