This Week's Weather Forecasting 5th - 8th June 2012

[JennyLeez]

Metservice.com New Zealand
Issued by MetService 11:09am Sunday 3 Jun 2012

Tuesday
Rain spreading to most places, but only scattered falls in Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. Some heavy falls in the west in the South Island, and snow lowering to near seal in the east and south of the South Island later.

Wednesday
North Island, rain. South Island, rain and snow clearing,becoming fine apart from showers near Foveaux Strait.

Thursday
Rain over the North Island easing to occasional showers,becoming fine from Wanganui and inland Wairarapa to Wellington. Mainly fine and frosty over the South Island, but showers about southern coasts.

Friday
North Island, a few showers in the north and west, fine or becoming fine elsewhere. South Island, fine apart from showers in the west and far south.

ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 11:24am Sunday 03-Jun-2012

Cold Outbreak Tuesday and Wednesday
Snow to low levels over southern South Island.

Forecast :
A front is expected to cross the South Island on Tuesday preceded by heavy rain
in western areas and strong northerlies. A very cold south to southwest
airstream behind the front should spread over Fiordland, Southland and Otago
Tuesday afternoon and reach Canterbury Tuesday evening. Snow is likely to fall
to very low levels in the southerly outbreak, including the hills of Dunedin.
Some heavy falls are possible inland. People in these areas should prepare for
difficult driving conditions, strong cold winds and a significant wind chill.The
weather should clear on Wednesday but severe frosts are likely Wednesday night.
More detailed forecasts will be issued on Monday.

Weather Watch New Zealand
Low pressure that has been soaking eastern Australia over the last few days is headed our way and looks to do the same to us.

The main rain from this low will start to fall over the western sections of both islands early on Tuesday.  Rain chances will spread east by evening so that most areas will see at least a small chance for precipitation.  Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa have the lowest chance for seeing precipitation.  Westland and Nelson have the best chance.  These areas also have a chance for seeing some heavy falls.

On Wednesday, the threat for heavy falls shifts north and east.  Wellington, Wairarapa, Hawkes Bay, Gisborne, Bay of Plenty and Northland could all see heavy falls.   The rest of the North Island will likely see rain as well, but the chance for heavy falls is very tiny.  The South Island should see a gradual drying and clearing on Wednesday.

Wind will also be a factor.  Most areas will see winds picking up on Tuesday with gusty north and north-west winds.

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[JennyLeez]

Situation for all New Zealand issued at
12:16am Tuesday 5 Jun 2012
Metservice

A deep low approaches Aotearoa New Zealand today and crosses the country Wednesday night. Associated rainbands spread over both islands, and very cold air moves onto the South Island today.
Thursday
Rain over the North Island easing to showers, becoming fine from Wanganui to southern Hawkes Bay southwards. Mainly fine and frosty over the South Island, but some rain and snow in Marlborough at first, and showers in the south, and west later.

Weather watch:

It's not just the South Island getting all the focus over the next 24 hours but also western and northern parts of the North Island are being advised to batten down the hatches.
A northerly is building in the Tasman sea and is set to cover much of the north tomorrow with strong to gale force northerlies and rain with some localised heavy falls and thunderstorms also a possibility.
Squalls aren't out of the picture either in isolated and exposed western areas and look likely to be at their most intense later tomorrow or overnight tomorrow night.
Wednesday should see a slow lessening of the wind however some heavy falls of rain are likely to remain as the flow tilts more northwesterly.
Gisborne to Wairarapa are likely to see similar gusts of wind pick up from the northwest over the next 24 to 48 hours however rain is expected to be sporadic.
Winds over  offshore waters around the North Island will be severe in peak gusts and swells will increase rapidly as of tomorrow morning as the northerly cranks into gear.
The cold conditions over the south from tomorrow aren't likely to have the same impact later in the week over the north however there's a definite cooling off period likely later in the week.

[Weather Display]

certainly looks like a snow maker (warm advection snow) for Canty

[JennyLeez]

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 9:34am 05-Jun-2012
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST IN: Bay Of Plenty Rotorua, Gisborne,
Westland, Nelson, Taihape, Taranaki, Wanganui, Buller, Marlborough,
Canterbury, Wairarapa, Wellington, Hawkes Bay

HEAVY RAIN AND GALES FOR MANY PLACES AND HEAVY SNOW IN THE SOUTH
ISLAND
A deep low is expected to approach the upper South Island from the
west early on Wednesday and move onto central New Zealand late
Wednesday. A sharp front is expected to lie over the central South
Island Tuesday evening. This front should then move slowly north. The
front is expected to bring heavy snow to Canterbury and parts of
Marlborough and heavy rain to Westland, Buller and Nelson. Snow
depths may be over 80cm in places. This is likely to be a highly
significant snow event for Canterbury and Marlborough making travel
very difficult and causing stress for livestock. Heavy snow could
also damage structures such as powerlines. Another front associated
with the low is expected to bring a burst of heavy rain to the the
eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne. Severe gale northerlies
are likely over parts of Taranaki, Wanganui and Taihape with gusts of
130km/h possible in exposed places. Southeasterlies are expected to
rise to severe gale in Nelson, Buller and the north of Westland
Wednesday morning, gusting 130 km/h in exposed places. Members of the
public are urged to stay up to date with the latest weather
information. The warning for severe gales in Gisborne, Hawkes Bay,
Wellington, Wairarapa and Marlborough has been cancelled but these
areas will remain on watch.

[JennyLeez]

WeatherWatch.co.nz is now seeing the event that is set to take hold of parts of the country as a storm event.
Worst affected areas appear to be taking shape over the northeastern corner of the South Island during the next 24-48 hours.
Temperatures are beginning to fall over the deep south as a sou' wester starts to pick up this afternoon.
Canterbury and Marlborough appear to be in the firing line with heavy snow forecast and WeatherWatch.co.nz is closely watching the situation.
Snow depths could total near a metre across higher altitudes of the Canterbury with substantial falls of up to half a metre possible about the upper part of the Canterbury Plains and Christchurch city may also see snow total 15-20cm by later tomorrow if sea level temperatures remain bitterly cold.
Christchurch looks to see temperatures struggle to hit four or five degrees by lunchtime tomorrow and with the chilly southerly they could feel closer to the sub zero mark.
It appeared this morning that rain and snowfall totals had eased a little but this afternoon it appears they're back and packing a punch.
"This is what can happen and can be a bit of a forecasters nightmare," according to Richard Green." Snow levels have fluctuated and once again it's looking like a near sea level event with some big totals possible further inland".
Weatherwatch.co.nz believes snowfalls of this amount could be dangerous for drivers, stock and some households if the powerlines can't handle the amount and weight of snow.
Elsewhere and wind and rain is a talking point with severe wind gusts possible for the southwest corner of the North Island .Some heavy rain could also move over parts of Gisborne and the BOP.
Overnight or tomorrow morning, high winds from the southeast could hit Nelson, Motueka, Takaka and further south in Westport.

[JennyLeez]

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR TARANAKI, TAUPO, TAUMARUNUI, WELLINGTON,
MARLBOROUGH, WAIRARAPA, GISBORNE, HAWKES BAY
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 2100hrs 05-Jun-2012

OUTBREAKS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND LOWER NORTH
ISLAND. GALES EXPECTED FOR GISBORNE, HAWKES BAY, WAIRARAPA,WELLINGTON
AND THE MARLBOROUGH SOUNDS.

A deep low is expected to approach the upper South Island from the
west early Wednesday, then weaken slightly and move east over the
North Island during late Wednesday and early Thursday. An associated
front is bringing a period of heavy rain this evening and early
Wednesday morning for the North Island high country from Taranaki
across to Mt Ruapehu. At this stage the rainfall accumulations in
these areas are expected to remain below warning criteria, although
isolated heavy falls are likely about Mount Taranaki. However, a
watch remains in force for Taranaki, and the central hill country. A
warning is in force for the ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty and
northern Gisborne.

Gale northerlies are expected to ease about southern Taranaki,
Wanganui and Taihape this evening, however, gales are still expected
about Gisborne, northern Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa, Wellington and the
Marlborough Sounds until early Wednesday morning. A watch is being
maintained for these areas.

Heavy rain is expected about the upper South Island tonight and
tomorrow, and a warning is in force for northwest Nelson, northern
Westland, Buller, with heavy snow about Marlborough and Canterbury.
Periods of rain, with heavy falls, are likely about the Marlborough
Sounds, Wellington and the Tararua Range during Wednesday, and
accumulations may approach warning criteria. A watch will be
maintained for these areas.
Rain is expected to clear Fiordland tonight. The watch has been
lifted for this area.
People in these areas should keep up to date with the latest
forecasts in case any of these watches need to be upgraded to full
warnings.
This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Wednesday 6 June