New Zealand Local Weather Forum
Weather Discussion => International => Topic started by: Mark on February 09, 2025, 08:32:25 AM
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The latest data point from the UAH shows a temperature anomaly of 0.46C, a noticeable drop from the recent peaks.
The dip suggests a larger cooling trend could be playing out, one tied to the waning of El Niño, the passing of Solar Maximum, and the dissipating aftereffects of the Hunga-Tonga submarine eruption.
[Dr Roy Spencer]
This is a significant drop. Readings are now approximately 0.5C off the April 2024 peak — that's half a degree of global cooling in 10 months.
https://electroverse.substack.com/p/global-temperatures-cool-significantly
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According to the UAH satellite dataset, the lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for May 2025 was 0.50C above the 1991–2020 average. That’s a 0.11C decrease from April’s 0.61C.
[UAH]
As per the chart: temperature spikes often follow strong El Niño events or, as with the most recent spike, record atmospheric injections of water vapor (Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai), then they subside.
This isn’t runaway warming—it’s oscillation. Natural cycles still rule the atmosphere.
https://electroverse.substack.com/p/the-planet-cooled-in-may-spains-climate
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The UAH satellite dataset shows the global lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for July 2025 at 0.36C, down from June’s 0.48C, underscoring the ongoing cooling shift.
That’s a 0.12C drop in a month, driven largely by the extra‑tropical Southern Hemisphere (which plunged from 0.55C to 0.10C). And since the April 2024 peak (15 months), global temperatures have now fallen a very significant 0.6C.
https://electroverse.substack.com/p/global-temperatures-continue-to-drop
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Global temperatures cooled again in November, according to the latest UAH update.
The month came in at 0.43C vs the 1991-2020 mean, down from 0.53C in October:
[Dr Roy Spencer]
The steepest cooldowns were noted across 1) Australia which saw a drop from 1.67C to 0.37C; 2) the Arctic, which fell from 1.42C to 0.78C; and 3) the Southern Hemisphere overall, which cooled from 0.55C to 0.27C.
Overall, the 2023-24 (Hunga-Tonga) warming spike continues to unwind, with global temperatures now having fallen roughly half a degree C from the recent peak.
https://electroverse.substack.com/p/global-temps-cooled-in-november-australias
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UAH satellite data show the global lower troposphere anomaly fell to 0.30C (0.54F) in December 2025, down from 0.43C (0.77F) in November, reinforcing the ongoing reversal since the 2024 Hunga Tonga/El Nino-driven spike.
Satellites measure the atmosphere directly, avoiding surface station bias, urban heat contamination, and agency homogenization ‘adjustments’.
They now show clear (and expected) cooling following the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga — a massive submarine explosion which injected an unprecedented volume of water vapor into the atmosphere that still lingers today (though waning).
December’s value sits us back in the long-term range. Similar anomalies occurred throughout the 2010s, 2000s, and even the 1990s — despite steadily rising CO2 concentrations. We’re even roughly on par with December 1987.
Global temperatures have returned to pre-eruption levels just as Solar Cycle 25 slides toward its minimum. All eyes on what follows.
https://electroverse.substack.com/p/global-temperatures-down-in-december
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Models are now converging on a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in early March.
Both GFS and ECMWF show 10 hPa stratospheric winds reversing from westerly to easterly — the formal definition of a major SSW. This implies a breakdown or displacement of the polar vortex high above the Arctic.
Historically, a disrupted vortex raises the odds of colder conditions across the mid-latitudes, often with a lag of 1 to 3 weeks.
This would make for the second SSW event of winter — a rare feat, occurring roughly once per decade.
https://electroverse.substack.com/p/another-major-ssw-building-northeast