New Zealand Local Weather Forum
Weather Discussion => International => Topic started by: Mark on April 05, 2024, 09:58:06 AM
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A large pool of abnormally cold water sitting beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean is a clear sign that El Niño is on its last legs, with history suggesting a swift transition to La Niña could be on the cards in 2024.
The 2023-24 El Niño
The Pacific Ocean has been in an El Niño phase since mid-2023, characterised by abnormally warm water near the surface of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Based on traditional methods of classifying El Niño, this was a historically strong El Niño and ranked as one of the top 6 strongest El Niño events since 1950. However, there are clear signs that the 2023-24 El Niño has passed its peak.
Sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean have been cooling in recent months, dropping from their peak towards the end of last year. There is also a large pool of cooler-than-average water beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, showing that the lingering surface warmth is shallow.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cold-water-deep-in-pacific-ocean-increases-likelihood-of-la-nina/1874193
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Mark-
New reader here - I use ARC GIS to track patterns related to these phenomenon. I would like to connect with you for some datasets. I'm located in Southern New Mexico about 200 miles north of the LukesVille POE.
Personally, Im expecting a continuation of the NEW El Nino Cycle in NM and possible dust bowl conditions based on NEW gleissberg cycle or continuations thereof. MAJOR water grab entities (Example) NMRGCD are pooling various acequias and their counterparties because of this supposed drought to disrupt crop cycles and food production based on global cooling from 2028 to 2031. I do hope your not apposed to working with a "westerner" I have read your post for 10 years and have never subscribed. BUT NOW IS THE TIME.
I believe we are on a major climate shift that may very well lead to food shortages, famine and petulance because of the weather conditions and geopolitical framework.
Cheers mate!
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Welcome rpk3 :)
Like me there will be many who will be interested in following this topic. Especially an 'outta towner' as so to speak :)
Most do not realise this possible pending crisis that could be looming.
I look forward to further reading.
Cheers
Jenny
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Hi Good to have you on broad. On this matter, you could lead the discussion. You seem to know things I never heard of like "gleissberg" is this a Sun cycle?.
As for what I post they are just reposts from other sites But we all here would like to know more about if you can help us out.
I think El Niño & la Nina. are the main drivers of all weather ( apart from the Sun) and I see la Nina becoming more regular not El Niño as is the forecast.
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Thank you Jenny- Glad to be here-
Mark- Just do a simple google of the gleissberg cycle's ( most say they are sun spot related) I say it's more of a mathematical anomaly related to the cycle itself. Kinda like a yield curve effect of most modern stock markets related on math.
I do know this, I'm excited/worried to see what the new cycle does bring. I know there will be massive disasters related to the change. ESPECIALLY given the next 4 to 6 years... our winters will grow cooler with earlier snows (especially mount Cook in NZ)
Late winters lasting thought June in the Rockies in the USA and V I O L E N T hurricane seasons based on gravitational pull and timing from the larger planets.
I'm predicting LARGE and CATOSROPHIC damage this hurricane season and subsequent seasons progressing harder the next 2 years with massive buildups breaking west towards the USA.
El-Nino will continue to build harder and stronger than ever before. Although, I'm alone in thinking the cycles are growing closer together and will begin to flip flop with greater urgency than years and cycles past. Since I was a boy I've firmly believed the "vernal" equinox has been out of timing with our typical Gregorian calendars, especially given that the rest of the world are still on the year 2016 today.
I will continue to write more with my opinions, am building a personal webpage now that will dive deeper into my hypothesis's and scienced based data backing those speculative opinions I have.
Because in the end, MY OPINIONS are speculative at best. I can only speak for myself and decipher the data on how my left brain connect the rights aspect of reality
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Hi, rpk3 As some here know iv been taking the Sun temp with a sensor in a jar since about 2008. It may a bit inaccurate but I done this the same way since 2008.
So what iv note is that this cycle is 1.8c colder than cycle 24. How much you can read into that I don't know. But I think its interesting.
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Fascinating- Mark.
Great insight on the "controlled" temp data collection-
Have you ever thought of a personal weather station?
Also, not sure if you've ever used SLIDER. Former Ramsdis GOES geospatial information based in Ft Collins Co.
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu
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Hi rpk3,
Yes i have a personal weather station.
Dat can be seen on this site under Bishopdale chch.
I will have a look at your link later in day when I have some time. Thanks.
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The Bureau of Meteorology has declared the El Niño event that gripped the Pacific Ocean over summer to be over.
The southern oscillation index has returned to a "neutral" state, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is in effect.
Nonetheless, the Bureau has forecast higher than median average temperatures for most of Australia in the coming months, including a chance for "unusually warm" conditions in parts of the east and the west
https://www.9news.com.au/national/el-nino-over-bureau-of-meteorology-declares/cbdc00e9-04a5-4c37-ba5f-fe8ecff7ef51
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Amazing Data Sets are coming across all weather stations. Amazing what global cooling is doing!
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The Bureau of Meteorology is on La Niña watch just a month after the summer's El Niño ended.
The Bureau declared the southern oscillation index (SOI) to have returned to neutral in mid-April, tying off the El Niño that developed over summer.
El Niño years are followed by La Niña years about 40 per cent of the time, and in about 10 per cent of years an El Niño year has been followed by another El Niño year.
READ MORE: 'Inappropriate' behaviour shuts down Dublin to New York City portal
A La Niña weather event would bring increased rain to eastern Australia. (Weatherzone)
Half the time, El Niño years are followed by neutral years, and the Bureau initially forecast ongoing warmer temperatures in coming months.
But yesterday, BoM said there were some "early signs" a La Niña might form in the Pacific Ocean later in the year.
"When La Niña Watch criteria have been met in the past, a La Niña event has subsequently developed around 50 per cent of the time," the Bureau said in its Climate Driver Update.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/la-nina-warning-bureau-of-meteorology-on-watch-just-weeks-after-el-nino-ends/5dbe0801-8550-4c00-8dd9-0e8e68b12b31
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It may only be July but thoughts are turning to the Northern Hemisphere winter, to the forecast La Niña and the cold and snow said ENSO pattern brings.
The 2022-23 winter, characterized by record-breaking snow totals and extended ski seasons, occurred during the previous La Niña. That winter capped a rare "triple-dipper" La Niña in fact, spanning three consecutive seasons from 2020 to 2023.
NOAA forecasts say another La Niña is likely on the cards during the 2024-25 winter, making for the fourth in the last five years and so contradicting the climate models that decreed 'global warming would favor more frequent El Niño events'.
Research has claimed, and continues to claim, that greenhouse warming will increase the frequency and intensity of El Niño events. A 2018 study published in Nature Climate Change projects that extreme El Niño events could become twice as frequent as temperatures rise. Similarly, a 2022 study from the University of Exeter foresees a global warming-fueled increase in the frequency of El Niño events by 2040.
These predictions are based on climate models that simulate the impact of increased greenhouse gas concentrations on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) indicate a robust strengthening of ENSO and more frequent extreme El Niño events under global warming scenarios.
But these models have failed, evidenced by the planet set to experience its fourth La Niña winter out of the past five
https://electroverse.substack.com/p/la-nina-forecast-heavy-snow-ahead
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Andrej Flis
Severe Weather Europe
Mon, 23 Sep 2024 21:10 UTC
polar vortex prediction 2024
A projected position of the polar vortex for Winter 2024-25
A look at the very latest Winter 2024/2025 forecast data shows the growing influence of a weak La Niña phase. Seasonal prediction systems are slowly aligning and starting to point to a specific weather scenario for the upcoming Winter season, but past forecasts issued in September were often too warm over the United States.
The global weather system has many large-scale and small-scale driving factors. The main factor this year will be a weak La Niña event in the Pacific, but we also expect the Polar Vortex to play a larger role in mid-Winter.
Cold La Nina growing
La Niña is a cold phase of the large and powerful oceanic ENSO oscillation. It is a region of the tropical Pacific Ocean that shifts between cold and warm phases. The cold ENSO phase is called La Niña, and the warm phase is called El Niño.
These ocean temperature anomalies (warmer or colder) occur in specific regions of the Pacific Ocean, as shown in the image below. The main region is 3.4 and is also the main area where we determine what phase is active and how strong it is.
https://www.sott.net/article/495097-Latest-winter-predictions-are-starting-to-align-onto-a-specific-Winter-scenario-for-US-Canada-and-Europe
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A clear La Niña signal is starting to emerge in the central Pacific Ocean, however the declaration of La Niña depends on a few factors that are still a coin flip chance of occurring.
What is La Niña?
La Niña is the cool phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that occurs when cooler than normal waters push westward along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This ocean pattern, coupled with changes to the overlying atmosphere, cause warmer waters and more rising air to occur over northern Australia, typically increasing spring and early summer rainfall.
Image: Sea Surface Temperature anomalies from NOAA Coral Reef Watch over the last 30 days, showing a cool tongue of water moving into the central Pacific, a sign that a La Niña is becoming more likely to develop this year.
Current ENSO Rating
The Bureau of Meteorology has had a La Niña Watch in place since May. This rating means there is a 50% chance of a La Niña developing this year, or about twice the normal likelihood.
The next step of the declaration process from the BoM would be a La Niña Alert. This rating means there is a 70% chance of a La Niña developing this year. To meet this rating, any three of the following four criteria must be met; two for the oceans and two for the atmosphere:
Sea surface temperature: A clear cooling trend has been observed in the Nino-3 or Nino-3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean during the past three to six months.
Models: A majority of surveyed climate models show sustained cooling to at least 0.8 °C below average in the Nino-3 or Nino-3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean by the late winter or spring.
Winds: Trade winds have been stronger than average in the western or central equatorial Pacific Ocean during any two of the last three months.
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI): The two-month average Southern Oscillation Index is +7 or higher.
Atmospheric Conditions
Of these four criteria, the only one that is clearly satisfied is the third. Trade winds
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/scales-tipping-in-favour-of-la-nina/1889947
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A La Niña winter is on the way, writes NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in their latest report released Thursday — it's due by December and should persistence through early 2025.
https://electroverse.substack.com/p/greenlands-above-average-start-to
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According to the European climate agency Copernicus, the 13-month streak of record-breaking global temperatures ended this July as the natural El Niño climate phenomenon began to subside.
Copernicus calculates its global average temperature using observations and climate models. It produces reanalysis datasets, filling in gaps where direct observations are lacking (which is a substantial portion of the planet, I might add). The Earth's surface is gridded, and temperatures are averaged within each grid cell, then combined with area-weighted calculations to determine the global average.
In a copied-and-pasted article doing in the mainstream rounds, scientists are warning that this recent dip in temperatures does not reduce the threat of climate change.
"The broader context remains unchanged," said Samantha Burgess, Copernicus' deputy director. "Our climate continues to warm."
As per the article, human-caused climate change is continuing to drive extreme weather events worldwide. In support of this contention, a few cherry-picked and entirely unprecedented events are offered up, including the flooding in Cape Town, South Africa; the landslide on Indonesia’s Sulawesi island; and Hurricane Beryl.
July's global average temperature was 0.68C (1.2F) above the 30-year average, according to Copernicus, and 1.48C (2.7F) above pre-industrial levels, nearing the 1.5C 'threshold of doom' set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The El Niño phenomenon had fueled the 13-month heat streak, explained Copernicus climate scientist Julien Nicolas, and its weakening led to July's temperature dip. But "the global situation hasn't significantly changed from last year," he added
Prince of the hustlers Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, chimes in: "Things will keep getting worse because we haven't stopped the activities causing the problem," he said, "regardless of whether July sets new records."
The article concludes with some pretty direct messaging: We shouldn't take any comfort in this temperature decrease, because heat record or not, "[global broiling] won’t end just because the streak has," warned Nicolas.
These so-called experts have admitted that a natural forcing (El Niño) fueled the heat streak, and that its subsiding has caused July's dip. Yet Schmidt in particular is vehemently against the idea of natural phenomena affecting the climate, dismissing the biggest elephant in the room, the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcanic eruption. Schmidt claims, without evidence, that the additional 150 million+ tons of water vapor it injected into the stratosphere cannot be responsible for the recent warming spike.
There are scientists however, such as Javier Vinós, that believe Tonga–Hunga is a key player.
"Because the Tonga eruption is unprecedented, there is much about its effects that we do not understand,” writes Vinós. "But we do know that the planetary greenhouse effect is very sensitive to changes in stratospheric water vapor because, unlike the troposphere, the stratosphere is very dry and far from greenhouse saturation."
https://electroverse.substack.com/p/record-heat-streak-ends-think-before
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After a weak October, all Nino regions have cooled into La Niña territory. A strongly positive Southern Oscillation Index is likely driving it: sustained +SOI means stronger trades, more upwelling, and a clear shift into a cold ENSO pattern.
Subsurface data confirms the turn. The cool pool that nearly vanished in October has rebuilt quickly, and the warm patch east of the Dateline has disappeared. November’s upper-ocean analyses now show a classic La Niña structure returning.
Across the global oceans, SSTs are have taken a nosedive in recent weeks (below chart).
ERA5’s 60S–60N mean slipped to 20.40C on Nov 15, with NOAA’s OISST falling to 20.44C. The oceans are now the coolest they’ve been since 2017.
https://electroverse.substack.com/p/la-nina-strengthens-and-global-sea
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The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that La Niña is underway in the Pacific Ocean. So, what does this mean for Australia’s weather this summer?
What is La Niña?
La Niña is one phase of a Pacific Ocean phenomenon called the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The other phases of ENSO are El Niño and neutral.
When La Niña is occurring, abnormally cool water lies near the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and warmer than normal water sits in the western tropical Pacific. This sea surface temperature pattern is associated with changes in the overlying atmosphere, with easterly trade winds typically becoming stronger and blowing extra moisture towards the western side of the Pacific Ocean.
Typical oceanic and atmospheric responses to La Niña. Source: Weatherzone.
Image: Typical oceanic and atmospheric responses to La Niña. Source: Weatherzone.
(https://nzpws.net/nzwn/images/la-nina_4.png)
What does La Niña mean for Australia?
La Niña can have a strong influence on Australia’s weather. While El Niño’s weather impacts are mostly felt during winter and spring, La Niña can have a noticeable effect on Australian weather in summer.
Australia typically sees above average rain over northern and eastern parts of the country when La Niña is in place during summer. Eastern Australia's mean summer rainfall is about 20% higher during La Niña, with the east coast typically seeing a stronger rainfall response to La Niña in summer than it does in winter or spring.
Daytime temperatures can also be suppressed over eastern and northern Australia when La Niña occurs in summer, which is associated with enhanced cloud cover over these parts of the country.
Tropical cyclone activity can also be amplified in the Australian region when La Niña is occurring.
The maps below show the average rainfall and maximum temperature changes observed across Australia from eight to nine past La Niña events combined.
Average summer rainfall deciles under the influence of La Niña. The green and blue shading shows where summer rainfall is typically above average during La Niña. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
Image: Average summer rainfall deciles under the influence of La Niña. The green and blue shading shows where summer rainfall is typically above average during La Niña. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
(https://nzpws.net/nzwn/images/la-nina_5.png)
Average summer maximum temperature deciles under the influence of La Niña. The blue shading shows where summer days are typically cooler than average during La Niña. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
Image: Average summer maximum temperature deciles under the influence of La Niña. The blue shading shows where summer days are typically cooler than average during La Niña. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
(https://nzpws.net/nzwn/images/la-nina_6.png)
It is important to note that no two La Niña events are the same and other competing climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM), can reinforce or counteract La Niña’s influence.
La Niña underway
The Bureau of Meteorology declared on Thursday, November 27, that La Niña is underway. This declaration was not a signal that La Niña is suddenly occurring, but recognition that it has been in place for the past couple of months.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s criteria for declaring La Niña are mostly retrospective, meaning La Niña conditions need to have been present in both the ocean and atmosphere for an extended period before they will declare it.
The Bureau noted that “observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been consistent with La Niña conditions since early October.
“The Bureau's model currently predicts that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain at La Niña levels until early 2026 before returning to neutral. This timing aligns with most international models assessed.”
What can Australia expect from this La Niña?
With Australia entering summer under the influence of La Niña, many people might be expecting to see above average rain and cooler than average days in the coming months, particularly in the country’s north and east.
However, the latest long-range outlooks from the Bureau paint a different picture, predicting near or below average rain and abnormally warm days for much of the country this summer.
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall this summer. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
Image: Chance of exceeding the median rainfall this summer. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature this summer. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
Image: Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature this summer. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
One of the reasons for the warm and dry summer outlook, despite La Niña, is the ongoing influence of a negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in the Southern Hemisphere. This negative SAM has been in place since early October in response to rare episodes of Sudden Stratospheric Warning above Antarctica during mid to late spring.
A negative SAM during late spring and summer enhances westerly winds over Australia, which can counteract the influence of La Nina’s strengthened easterly trade winds. The current negative SAM phase has indeed been hindering La Nina’s influence on Australian weather in recent months, and this influence may linger into early summer.
Some international long-range forecast models do show signs of La Niña starting to have more influence on Australian rainfall in the coming weeks. This suggests that a breakdown of the negative SAM may allow La Niña’s influence to emerge more clearly into December or January.
Forecast monthly precipitation anomaly for Australia during December, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Credit: Weatherzone.
Image: Forecast monthly precipitation anomaly for Australia during December, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Credit: Weatherzone.
The outlook for this summer is currently tricky to pin down due to the competing influences of La Niña and the SAM, and uncertainty regarding the future development of the SAM into December.
Meteorologists will be keeping a close eye on the primary climate drivers around Australia in the coming weeks to see how this situation evolves heading into summer. You will find regular updates on the Weatherzone news feed throughout the season.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/la-nina-declared-days-out-from-summer--what-does-this-mean-for-australia/1891047
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Australia could be in for a hot, dry El Niño year according to early weather signs.
The Pacific region is currently in a La Niña phase, characterised by cooler and wetter weather conditions.
This began in spring 2025, but Weatherzone reports those conditions are now weakening and expected to decay further.
The Pacific does not necessarily swing between El Niño and La Niña, but can remain in a neutral state, which is expected this autumn.
"The transition to a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state in the Pacific Ocean this autumn opens the door for a potential switch to El Niño later this year," Weatherzone reported.
"While this is not guaranteed, it is not uncommon for El Niño to follow La Niña after the tropical Pacific Ocean passes through a neutral phase in the middle of the year."
https://www.9news.com.au/national/el-nino-forecast-chances-rise-of-hot-dry-weather-system/5b14e487-185d-431b-b9f0-edb17719fead
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The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that La Niña is officially over, with forecasts now pointing at a rapid transition to El Niño later this year.
The Bureau’s latest Southern Hemisphere Monitoring report, issued on March 31, declared that “the 2025-26 La Niña has ended.”
This declaration ends a La Niña episode that started in spring last year and contributed to above average rain over large areas of northern and central Australia.
Rainfall deciles during the 6-month period from October 2025 to March 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
Image: Rainfall deciles during the 6-month period from October 2025 to March 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The past six months had clear hallmarks of La Niña, with widespread above-average rain, flooding in multiple states and even drought relief in some parts of the country.
It was, however, a relatively weak La Niña and did not bring wetter-than-usual weather to some parts of Australia. This is a good reminder that no two La Niña events are the same and their impacts can vary considerably from one La Niña to the next.
What comes next for Australia?
The Pacific Ocean has now transitioned into a neutral state, meaning neither La Niña nor El Niño are in place. This neutral phase is likely to persist until at least late autumn, during which time the tropical Pacific Ocean will have little influence on Australia's weather.
Looking further ahead, there are strong signs that El Niño could emerge later this year.
While sea surface temperatures are currently near average at the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, there is a large pool of abnormally warm water building beneath the surface. This deep warm water is expected to emerge at the surface in the coming months, which increases the likelihood of El Niño.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/la-nina-over-el-nino-now-possible-for-australia-in-2026/1891293
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A Super El Niño acts as a massive planetary heat engine, releasing vast amounts of stored oceanic energy into the atmosphere and significantly altering the global jet stream. Studies have confirmed that a Super El Niño can affect global climate for several years, transforming typical seasonal patterns and altering everything from international agriculture to winter storm tracks.
In this article, we will analyze the latest oceanic data and compare the current 2026 signatures to the strongest historical events of recent decades. We will also look at the latest seasonal forecasts and why this El Niño could be a record breaker. Also, we will find the first major weather impacts across the United States, Canada, and Europe, from Summer to the Atlantic Hurricane season, and into the Winter 2026/2027.
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/super-el-nino-2026-forecast-global-weather-shift-expected-united-states-canada-europe-fa/