New Zealand Local Weather Forum
Weather Discussion => Forecasts and Warnings => Topic started by: JennyLeez on February 25, 2023, 10:10:59 PM
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MetService is tracking the possible formation of a cyclone north of Fiji, only two weeks after ex-tropical Cyclone Gabrielle struck New Zealand leaving widespread damage.
“We are closely monitoring a tropical low north of Fiji which could develop into a tropical cyclone next week. It is too early to say whether it will affect New Zealand after it leaves the tropics,”
Another cyclone forming would be tough news for tired and weary Kiwis in regions that were hit hard by Gabrielle or by the flooding on Auckland Anniversary weekend.
The forecast is not looking much better for next week, with MetService predicting a “moist easterly flow” bringing rain onto the northeast of the North Island.
From the Metservice:
On Monday a low to the northeast of the North Island is expected to direct a moist easterly flow onto the Island bringing rain to exposed areas. The areas likely to get the heaviest rain are Gisborne and the Coromandel Peninsula and there is a moderate confidence in rainfall accumulations reaching warning amounts there. There is a low confidence in warning amounts of rain for Hawkes Bay, Bay of Plenty and Auckland.
The low is expected to drift away to the east on Tuesday but there is then a low confidence in rainfall amounts reaching warning criteria in Gisborne and Hawkes Bay.
A ridge of high pressure should bring settled weather to much of the country on Wednesday, but a moist northerly flow develops over the South Island.
On Thursday a front is expected to move east onto the South Island and there is then a moderate confidence in rainfall accumulations for Fiordland and the south of Westland reaching warning amounts as indicated on the chart.
(http://nzpws.net/nzwn/maps23/metservice-25-02-2023.png)
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.2S 179.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 179.2E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94P IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, VERY WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE
THAT DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt