New Zealand Local Weather Forum
Weather Discussion => International => Topic started by: Rwood on June 20, 2019, 10:24:40 AM
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4th warmest (global, land + sea). For Southern hemisphere land, it was the warmest on record. The coldness over a substantial part of the USA and Europe gave a misleading impression - there was a significant difference between the two hemispheres.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201905
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Interesting to compare similarities between the global anomaly map at that link to the NASA model/reconstruction late 1600's maps here...
https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/shindell_06/
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Try this one as well.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom
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Austria had its coolest may since 1991 with the mean temperature is 2.6 below the long term mean.
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As with geopolitics, the intrigue following weather and climate is on a rising trajectory now. The next 10-20 years should settle things. Either way there are some hefty predictions being made by big names/institutions and it'll be messy. As part of geology degree I did some climate science, 25+ years ago so very rusty. A central and solid prediction reinforced by several lecturers at the time was that by now the Hadley cells would have expanded to the point NZ would be in a state of near perma-drought with the circum-Antarctic vortex/roaring forties being suppressed south. It's rather like trying to measure pedesis of a happy dogs tail... but they're crowing about roughly a degree of arc pole-ward expansion at this point. The narrative I paid good money for has proven largely divergent of reality... it has obviously warmed somewhat though.
Jet stream non-linearity seems to be rocking the boat of late.
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I recall a seminar a few years back which cited a fairly significant poleward shift from 1979 to present. If you're challenging what is being said now you shoud try engaging the likes of Renwick or Salinger. I don't think there is any reason whatever for complacency.
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Timely to note now that various locations in Northland, Auckland and Waikato reported record low rainfalls to the end of June - the kind of scenario predicted years ago as occurring more frequently in the future - not for the whole of NZ as implied by a post above!!
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