New Zealand Local Weather Forum
Weather Discussion => Cyclone, Hurricane and Tornado Watch => Topic started by: gabba on March 09, 2015, 11:34:59 PM
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TC Pam is beginning to establish itself in the Pacific, west of Vanuatu. The models for this have suggested a very large TC developing in the area for several days now, so people are watching this closely.
Here is the latest info from the Fiji met service which monitors the area the TC currently sits in
**** UPDATES ON TC PAM ****
AT 6PM THIS EVENING TD11F INTENSIFIED FURTHER AND IS NOW CALLED "TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM".
IT IS A CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.4 S 169.8E OR APPROXIMATELY 1,330 KM NORTHWEST OF NADI.
IT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS AT 4 KNOTS.
ON ITS CURRENT PROJECTED PATH IT IS EXPECT TO PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FIJI.
THOUGH TC PAM DOES NOT POSE ANT DIRECT THREAT TO FIJI, THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND THE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY MAY AFFECT CERTAIN PARTS OF FIJI.
PLEASE STAY TUNED MORE UPDATES.
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From Weather watch so far:
Tropical Cyclone Pam has formed directly north of New Zealand and while it is likely to grow into a severe storm the latest tracking shows it may well go between Vanuatu and Fiji – where it’s mostly open sea.
The storm is also likely to narrowly miss NZ – but the swells and rips are likely to be very dangerous around North Island eastern and northern beaches, even if the weather here is sunny and settled.
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Possibly damaging winds for Hawkes Bay & Gisborne according to latest GFS.
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Some early map forecasts as at Wednesday Midnight.
From Weatherzone
(http://nzpws.net/nzwn/maps14/met-15-03-2015.png)
(http://nzpws.net/nzwn/maps14/met-16-03-2015.png)
(http://nzpws.net/nzwn/maps14/met-17-03-2015.png)
From the Metservice
(http://nzpws.net/nzwn/maps14/met-16-03-2015-2.png)
A weak front should cross southern New Zealand on Friday, followed by a ridge of high pressure. The ridge should remain over the South Island until Monday. A southeast flow should develop over the North Island on Saturday and strengthen on Sunday as TC Pam moves out of the tropics and southeastwards.
TC Pam is expected to remain east of New Zealand, but parts of the North Island are likely to be affected by severe weather on Monday, especially Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay, where there is a high confidence of warning amounts of heavy rain and severe southeast gales, possibly starting late Sunday.
For Northland, northern Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula there is a low confidence that rain could become heavy late Sunday and southeast gales could become severe. However, the confidence increases to moderate on Monday, for both warning amounts of heavy rain in these areas and also severe gales. Southeasterlies are expected to turn southwest as the low tracks further south on Monday and there is also a risk of severe southwest gales.
Further south, there is a low confidence of rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria in central and southern Hawkes Bay and also Wairarapa on Monday.
In addition, strong southeasterlies are likely to affect the remainder of the North Island and there is a moderate confidence that these could become severe about Auckland City, Waikato and Bay of Plenty. Winds may turn southwest later Monday about Auckland, and these southwest gales could also be severe. There is a low confidence of severe southeast gales for the rest of the North Island and the Marlborough Sounds on Monday.
Also of significance, unusually heavy northerly swell is expected to affect exposed coastlines from Cape Reinga to East Cape from later Sunday and during Monday. This swell has the potential to cause coastal damage and dangerous sea conditions.
The Chatham Islands are also likely to be affected by gales, heavy rain and unusually large swell from later Monday.
There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the track of TC Pam and severe weather watches and warnings will be issued as the situation evolves.
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The above still remains in place with an update for Tuesday:
On Tuesday, as the low tracks further south, there is low confidence of heavy rain and severe southerly gales about Wairarapa and Wellington, and also Marlborough and Canterbury.
Also of significance, unusually heavy northerly swell should affect exposed coastlines from Cape Reinga to East Cape from later Sunday and during Monday,and as the low tracks south during Tuesday, heavy southeast swell expected to affect exposed coastlines of Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa. This swell has the potential to cause coastal damage and dangerous sea conditions.
Good sum up from weatherwatch.co.nz here:
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/latest-various-maps-cyclone-pam (http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/latest-various-maps-cyclone-pam)
Updated Maps as below :(
(http://nzpws.net/nzwn/maps14/met-16-03-2015-3.png)
(http://nzpws.net/nzwn/maps14/met-17-03-2015-2.png)
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Latest update from Stuff.co.nz here:
Tropical Cyclone Pam 'bigger than Bola' | Stuff.co.nz (http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/67314645/tropical-cyclone-pam-bigger-than-bola)
Metservice also have an active bolog tracking this system here:
Tropical Cyclone Pam: latest updates | MetService Blog (http://blog.metservice.com/2015/03/tropical-update-mar15/)
It's clear that this is a big system! As to where it goes next we will have to wait and see
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it will be ok for surfing 8)
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Looks like port Vila is taking a direct hit from the eye wall at the moment. Hard to get info on what is happening but central pressure seems to be between 904 and 900 mb.
With Winds around 240 kph at its centre, it looks as if the cyclone has drifted slightly further west than expected, which would bring it on a path closer to Nz early next week.
Port Vila radio has gone off the air and power and water is out across much of Vila. There are early reports of people being killed in remote northern areas.
Will post again if I find more useful info tonight, but otherwise await the damage reports tomorrow
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Sending my thoughts out to you all, wishing you safety
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Damage reports starting to come through as the morning arrives. Overnight Port Vila missed the eye of the storm as it went slightly east. , however the TC has gained more energy and now has an estimated centre pressure of around 889mb. Unconfirmed reports of 45 people dead.
Following is an extract from an article on stuff.co.nz. More here:
Cyclone Pam hits Vanuatu: Dozens feared dead | Stuff.co.nz (http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/67366444/cyclone-pam-hits-vanuatu-dozens-feared-dead)
Cyclone Pam has made a direct hit on Vanatu as a massive Category 5 storm in what will surely be one of the worst disasters in the archipelago's history.
"The immediate concern is for a very high death toll but also an enormous amount of destruction and devastation," Sune Gudnitz, head of the Pacific office at UNOCHA, the UN's emergency relief arm, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation from nearby Fiji, which is also bracing for the impact of Pam.
The capital of Port Vila may have been spared the absolute worst-case scenario, the Weather Channel reported, but the islands of Erromango, Tanna, and Aneityum were in line for a direct hit.
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Imagery from NASA. Taken approx 0000 14 March 2015
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A Summary here from the Fijitimes:
"It's a thundery noise coming through and obviously things are starting to fly around. We can feel things hitting us at different times," she said.
"Very few structures I think will be able to withstand a category five cyclone of the magnitude that we are seeing.
More:
http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=298077 (http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=298077)
Vanuatu in lockdown for Cyclone Pam
Vanuatu bracing itself for a direct hit Friday night.
Cyclone Pam has passed through the provinces of Torba, Penama and Malampa over the past 12 hours.
Up to 4000 people across Vanuatu have taken refuge in shelters such as concrete churches and schools.
More:
http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=298075 (http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=298075)
Update from Weatherwatch Saturday Morning 14th March:
'While I cannot confirm the reports from my Vanuatu contacts, and others online this morning, they do mention houses and complexes being destroyed, many roofs gone. '
As Pam moves past eastern New Caledonia later today and tonight her overall movement will speed up - which is better news for New Zealand as it means the low is less likely to linger - the longer it stays the higher the damage.
Full Summary here.
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/philip-duncan-what-happens-next-with-cyclone-pam-after-vanuatu-4-maps (http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/philip-duncan-what-happens-next-with-cyclone-pam-after-vanuatu-4-maps)
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Solomon Islands is taking stock of the aftermath of Cyclone Pam with reports of serious damages in the country's eastern province.
Trees and crops have been flattened, with residents sheltering in school buildings and caves as the Category 5 storm destroyed their homes.
Solomon Islands National Disaster Management Office Deputy Director Jonathan Tafiariki said Tikopia Island was one of the worst affected.
"We have been informed that now the island is more like a desert again, since they have experienced strong winds since yesterday," he said.
"So that means we have all the food gardens and most of the trees have been blown down."
Mr Tafiariki said other islands have reported extensive destruction and damage to houses but so far there had been no loss of life.
He said initial relief efforts from the disaster management office would focus on food, water and medical supplies but ongoing severe weather conditions were delaying the response.
'Some people have been injured'
Another spokesperson, Brian Tom, told Checkpoint that more than 3000 households had been affected, with some houses damaged or destroyed - and reports of injuries.
"Some people have been injured from the fallen trees [and] houses that were destroyed by the strong winds of the tropical cyclone."
Mr Tom said Tikopia and Anuta bore the full force of the storm.
He said the people of Tikopia had lost 90 percent of their food crops and fruit trees, and their water was contaminated, but the weather was still too rough to launch a boat with emergency supplies.
He said all phone lines to Anuta were down and they had no information about how the island has fared.
(http://nzpws.net/nzwn/images/pam1.jpg)
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Pam's path down and around New Zealand is still fairly unpredictable.
Below are 2 sets of Maps from weatherzone.
First set of path forecasts:
(http://nzpws.net/nzwn/maps14/pam_sun1.png)
(http://nzpws.net/nzwn/maps14/pam_mon1.png)
Second set of path forecasts:
(http://nzpws.net/nzwn/maps14/pam_sun2.png)
(http://nzpws.net/nzwn/maps14/pam_mon2.png)
and from the Metservice:
(http://nzpws.net/nzwn/maps14/met_pam_mon2.png)
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Looking at that Jenny you had better batten down the hatches !!
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Link to live Wind Map for tracking here:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-182.18,-23.34,1207 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-182.18,-23.34,1207)
Link to NZ Herald live Blog here:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11417234 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11417234)
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Now NZ plays the waiting game...
The next 24 hours will be free from frequent updates as Pam starts to move away from the islands and truly out into the open waters between us and the tropics where there are few weather stations.
So we'll just be watching it spin - and watching the various models frequently continue to place it closer to NZ one update, further east to the next. She will drop from a Cat 5 to a Cat 3. Hopefully she will drop further to a Cat 2. But even if she does we can still expect winds greater than 100km/hr
The last forecast track map was issued by RSMC Nadi. The map shows Pam taking a southeast track to lie to the northeast of New Zealand on Sunday as predicted.
This one is not going to fizzle out. Cyclone Pam is going to continue down. We can only hope the jetstream pulls her further east on her journey and the damage to New Zealand is minimal.
Needless to say as she becomes closer tomorrow the forecasters will all have more idea.
My backyard is now all packed into our sheds. We are ready but many around here are not taking the warnings serious enough. I guess this is what happens when so many storms are forecast and never happen :(
I have managed to get all the Upper East Coast weather Stations online from Gisborne down to Mohaka. I have added another Gisborne Weather Station in the last few days. We now have one North East and the new one is close to the Airport, West.
I am hoping our Northern Hawkes Bay Community Stations can remain in the air :)
http://nzpws.net/ (http://nzpws.net/)
Jenny.
Footnote: I note Gisborne and Gisborne West Windrun for today is 13km and 24km respectively; the calm before the storm huh.
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For those of us inland and more than a 1000 km from any ocean it is hard to visualize and feel the anxiety of such huge storms. I have been following the comments on this and trust it avoids any direct hit on developed areas.
Everyone, keep safe!
Paul
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Went for a drive further north to see the swells as I won't be able to tomorrow, took a few readings with my Vavuud wind meter, got some readings on a ridge of 58kmh average and 96.1 kmh maximum.
Those with Android phone can download the vavuud app to see my readings (they are the only ones north of the Bay of Islands)
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I could not visualize what it is like to live 1000km from the water.
From where I live I Christchurch, the distance to Auckland is about 1000KM and a lot of water to the east and west - not many KM from it.
It does look like the path is closer to NZ than the met service had on their video report earlier today.
Chris
Christchurch Weather Live (http://weather.crowe.co.nz)
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Metservice have updated their blog:
http://blog.metservice.com/
At 1pm this afternoon (NZ local time) Tropical Cyclone Pam was located about 500km to the north of New Zealand. TC Pam has weakened somewhat in the last 6 hours, therefore being downgraded to a category 4 cyclone and forecast to weaken to a category 3 cyclone overnight. Pam is expected to lie about 150km east of East Cape (northern Gisborne) by midday Monday.
Visible satellite image of tropical cyclone Pam (left).
Visible satellite image of tropical cyclone Pam (left).
Rain radar (right) at 3pm Sunday 15 March 2015.
Rain radar (right) at 3pm Sunday 15 March 2015.
The satellite image (left) shown above clearly shows thick cloud bands with embedded thunderstorms around the centre of the low producing heavy rain over the ocean north of New Zealand. Outer rain bands have spread over Northland and Auckland as seen in the above radar image (right).
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So, doing a hunt around it looks like the general consensus is that pam will remain a TC until it is east of East Cape , which is most unusual at these latitudes. Currently Pam is heading sse at about 60kmh
Strong winds and heavy rain predicted for North and East of North Island. Tologa Bay, Tokomaru Bay expectong storm swell of up to 9m. Metservice currently have warnings in place. It's still a damaging TC so people in those areas need to prepare for a tough 24 hours. It's not a normal storm, so don't take it lightly.
In wellington we are not likely to see much rain until tomorrow night, and Tuesday. Again we will need to see what the next 24 hours bring. We had the fire engine up past our place today, presumably they were checking for obvious issues around the place in preparation, or going for a Sunday drive!
Auckland and northland are already seeing some rain from this system, and it is still 400km out from those places.
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Stuff.co.nz have an article with images of the devastation caused in Vanuatu. Scary stuff.
Cyclone Pam: Vanuatu aftermath 'heartbreaking' | Stuff.co.nz (http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/67383571/cyclone-pam-vanuatu-aftermath-heartbreaking)
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When we were battered last year with winds around 70mph was frightening enough thinking of you all
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Pam visited Auckland last night. There were some power cuts, but nothing major it seems.
The ex-cyclone seems to have tracked east a little further again, so this will reduce the impact on some areas. However there are still forecast impacts on the east coast of the North Island from Hastings north.
Stuff have a live blog that will be worthwhile tracking today. Also keep an eye on the metservice site for any Warnings issued
Cyclone Pam live blog | Stuff.co.nz (http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/67410370/cyclone-pam-live-blog)
There is a great photo of the impact on Te Araroa. All schools in Gisborne are closed. Latest Sat Image from met service has just been posted
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Howick, Auckland: We've had 40mm rain from Pam. Only real soaking of rain all year.
Wind never eventuated, max gust only 52 km/h.
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Just posted on MetService twitter feed:
Hicks Bay (closest weather station to Cyclone Pam) now has a pressure of 975hPa. Here's the trace for last 48hr. ^CN
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CALEcFcU8AAp4zJ.png)
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Pam now closest to NZ, 144km/h winds recorded on Great Barrier Island -
Latest article from Weather Watch.
'Pam was this morning downgraded to an ex-tropical cyclone but the winds and rain around it remain severe and powerful still ... but are substantially weaker than when the storm was Cat5 just 24 hours ago.
Warnings are given as worst case possible scenarios based on the facts at the time. If a tornado missed hitting a house the warnings would still be justified - same when a severe cyclone narrowly misses our largest city with damaging winds. The 144km/h gust on Great Barrier Island was on the edge of the severe winds - not even in the middle of it.
With that in mind the centre of the low is now at its closest to New Zealand and will continue to move close to land into Monday afternoon. The bulk of the severe weather is out at sea.
Across Monday Pam will move rain and gales down East Cape and into Gisborne and Wairoa. Huge seas, gales and driving rain will make conditions dangerous outdoors.
Regions south of Hawkes Bay are not expected to have severe weather but may get wet and windy for a time.'
Full Report here:
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/cyclone-pams-centre-moves-closer-northern-new-zealand-5-maps (http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/cyclone-pams-centre-moves-closer-northern-new-zealand-5-maps)
(http://nzpws.net/nzwn/maps14/16march.png)
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Homes are being evacuated, roads are flooded, and power has been cut to several communities as ex-tropical cyclone Pam moves towards the East Coast.
Coastal towns are bracing for gales, severe rain and heavy seas as the storm centre moves closer throughout the afternoon.
In Gisborne District, more than 40 people have been moved out of homes in danger of flooding.
The army has helped evacuate 24 people from Anaura Bay, where the road has been closed due to flooding, while another six have been evacuated from Mangatuna, north of Tolaga Bay, where the river has risen 5.5m in four hours.
Gisborne Civil Defence Emergency Management said 10 residents from Te Araroa's East Cape Rd are being sheltered in the town's Hinerupe Marae.
Power is out to several communities in the region, and residents are being warned power could be intermittent throughout the day as faults are repaired and new outages occur.
Hicks Bay and the East Cape had average wind speeds of 85km/h, and gusts of wind of up to 120km/h.
Report from nzherald.co.nz
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11418050 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11418050)
Attached, Tologa Bay
Update: At least 600 customers are without power on the East Coast.
The highest rainfall of 161mm and 144mm have been recorded for the northwest of Tolaga Bay in the past 12 hours.
(http://nzpws.net/nzwn/images/tolaga.jpg)
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A state of local emergency has been declared on the Chatham Islands. Here's the statement from the NZ Civil Defence website:
The Mayor of the Chatham Islands, Alfred Preece, has declared a state of local emergency on the Islands at 1:35pm Chatham Islands Time, 16 March 2015. The reason for the declaration is the imminent arrival of Cyclone Pam combined with rural fires on the Islands. The declaration will be used to protect public safety and coordinate the emergency response.
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Met ServiceMaster have a very good summary of this event on their blog here
TC Pam Summary | MetService Blog (http://blog.metservice.com/2015/03/tc-pam-summary/)
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Very informative Gabba thanks