New Zealand Local Weather Forum

Climate and Science => Climatology and Environment => Topic started by: OhauitiWeather on March 16, 2012, 04:22:42 PM

Title: What will Winter hold?
Post by: OhauitiWeather on March 16, 2012, 04:22:42 PM

The Summer has been ordinary and the beginning of Autumn hasn't been all that flash and there's been a bit of talk amongst a few experts that winter won't necessarily be the warmest on record.

Once again we had a La Nina summer although not as strong as the previous year and there are indicators that the La Nina pattern is contuining to weaken and as winter approaches neutral conditions are a distinct possibility.

What that means is that we can expect an average winter however extreme conditions are not out of the picture either as cold fronts and depressions deliver the usual spate of rain, strong winds and snow to low levels in the south but also anticyclones bring sunny and cool days but crisp nights with frosty conditions.

There is some talk amongst scientists that we may then move into a El Nino pattern which tends to deliver drier and warmer temperatures to eastern parts of the country but cooler and moisture laden skies to western and southern districts.

There is never an exact blueprint when it comes to either El Nino or La Nina patterns as has been proven by the last 2 summers in La Nina phases which have delivered varying conditions from one year to the next.

The cycles of weather ebb and flow from one season to another and skiers this winter will be hoping for decent snowfalls whereas a few of us wouldn't mind a winter that isn't too harsh.

Story by WeatherWatch.co.nz weather analyst Richard Green
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/what-will-winter-hold?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=facebook (http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/what-will-winter-hold?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=facebook)

Title: Re: What will Winter hold?
Post by: TokWW on March 16, 2012, 05:18:23 PM

What will be interesting is the dam levels in the South Island being moderately low for this time of year going into winter, so look out for power cuts and huge power price hikes as the thermal stations are brought on line such as Stratford, Huntly, (and possibly Marsden B if it is still commissioned) as base load stations instead of peak load. I'm not sure about the Cook St cable too, the land based hardware from the 60's was being replaced and upgraded - I hope that is finished.

Title: Re: What will Winter hold?
Post by: Suezy on March 18, 2012, 08:51:43 PM

Heard yesterday that the lakes were low - so power cuts may on the agenda.