New Zealand Local Weather Forum
Weather Discussion => International => Topic started by: Mark on December 16, 2012, 08:14:41 AM
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December 14, 2012 – FIJI - Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan is finally done pounding Samoa and American Samoa, after spending two days meandering over the islands. Evan made landfall on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia on Thursday as a Category 1 cyclone with 90 mph winds, and intensified into a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds after the eye wandered back offshore late Thursday. Media reports indicate that Evan has killed four and brought heavy damage to Samoa. “Power is off for the whole country… Tanugamanono power plant is completely destroyed and we might not have power for at least two weeks,” the Disaster Management Office (DMO) said in a statement. Satellite loops show a well-organized storm with plenty of intense heavy thunderstorm activity. The storm will be a region with light wind shear of 10 – 15 knots and very warm ocean waters that extend to great depth, and could intensify into a Category 4 cyclone by Saturday, as it passes through the Wallis and Futuna Islands. On Sunday, Evan is expected to pass just north of Fiji. The GFS model shows that Fiji should experience heavy rains from Evan, but miss the core eye-wall region with the strongest winds and highest storm surge. The storm will encounter decreasing ocean heat content on Monday, after it passes Fiji, and should weaken to a Category 1 cyclone. Evan is one of Samoa’s most destructive tropical cyclones on record, as discussed by wunderground’s weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. The most famous and deadliest tropical storm to strike Samoa (in modern records) was that of March 1889, which influenced the balance of Western imperial power in the Southern Pacific. –Wunderground
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WeatherWatch.co.nz, FuseworksDecember 16, 2012, 2:01 pm
Updated 1:53pm Severe category four tropical cyclone Evan is starting to push into Fiji, roaring in from Samoa in the north east reports WeatherWatch.co.nz.
The cyclone is a category 4 storm and the Fiji Met Service says it may strengthen to the maximum Cat5 rating in the next 24 hours or so.
Evan can now be clearly seen as the bright orange blob on the WeatherWatch.co.nz satellite map (right hand side of our website).
In the past 24 hours meteorologists at the Fiji Met Service have updated the predicted track Evan will take and this now takes the centre of the cyclone (where the worst of the winds are) significantly further north of both Suva and much of Fiji. However WeatherWatch.co.nz head weather analyst Philip Duncan says Fiji is still expected to get walloped by the storm over the next couple of days.
"Evan is a slow moving high-end tropical cyclone. The scale only goes up to five and Evan is four putting sustained winds at 185km/h with damaging gales stretching 185kms from the south of the centre in to Fiji's mainland" says Mr Duncan. "Gusts may end up climbing to 280km/h or greater around the centre of Evan. To put this all in to perspective that's stronger than the recent Hobsonville tornado but unlike the tornado this cyclone is covering a few hundred kilometres not a few hundred metres".
But with Evan further north of the main island this could reduce the amount of wind damage to more populated centres - however damage may still be catastrophic for others in the north and north west especially. "Some small low lying communities and resorts may suffer catastrophic damage and some small islands may be entirely submerged as the storm and storm surge roll by".
As of 1:45pm Evan still had no noticeable eye in the centre based on satellite maps. A clear eye may develop in the middle of Evan today as the system gets better organised and potentially strengthens further.
Mr Duncan says the centre of Evan looks likely to track closer to Nadi than Suva but torrential rain, which could lead to significant flooding and landslides, could affect all parts of the nation.
"Northern and north western parts of Fiji will be most impacted by the gales while the entire main island will be exposed to torrential rain which could lead to flash flooding and mudslides".
WeatherWatch.co.nz says with Cyclone Evan tracking so closely to Fiji's main international airport in Nadi to expect a number of flight cancellations and delays in the coming days.
Massive seas are also expected as the storm churns by. Coastal flooding could be a significant issue for some areas. The NZ Herald is reporting eight fisherman are currently missing near Samoa since the cyclone passed there at the end of last week.
Evan and New Zealand - Updated 1:45pm Sunday
Computer guidance this past week has been flip flopping about Evan's future path after Fiji - however more models are agreeing that there is now a higher probability that Evan - or the remnants of Evan - will reach northern New Zealand next weekend.
"This is one for people in the North Island of New Zealand to watch closely as it may impact some travel and holiday plans in the lead up to Christmas" says head weather analyst Philip Duncan.
"We're not expecting Evan to be a cyclone if it does reach New Zealand next weekend, but it may still bring damaging gales and torrential tropical rains. At the very least it's one to monitor".
WeatherWatch.co.nz says at this stage it's unlikely Evan will have any significant impacts on international air travel to and from Auckland International Airport.
Mr Duncan says the risk of Evan hitting New Zealand has steadily increased over the past week. "A week ago WeatherWatch.co.nz first talked about Evan and we said there was a 20% chance of it hitting us directly. Now we place that threat at 40% and if the models continue as they are on Monday the our confidence levels will jump to 60%".
However the cyclone will be weakening, as they do when they leave the tropics and move over cooler waters and less favourable conditions to stay powered up as it heads towards the upper North Island.
The last significant ex-cyclone to hit New Zealand was Cyclone Wilma in January 2011 bringing slips, flooding and wind damage to parts of Northland, Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula. The storm was fast moving and lasted only about 12 to 18 hours. Current models - which may change in the coming days - predict at this early stage that Evan may linger for two or three days around the North Island.
Mr Duncan says a more concrete prediction on Evan's future path should evolve over the next two days as the storm starts to clear Fiji and back out into the open waters.
"People shouldn't panic as we're not going to see a Category 4 cyclone hitting New Zealand, but as with any tropical low we should monitor it closely, especially with so many people about to hit the roads, parks, beaches and outdoors".
WeatherWatch.co.nz will have daily updates on Evan over the coming week.
- WeatherWatch.co.nz
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Thanks for that Mark - very informative. Trust it does not come to fruition and have just checked out the Met Service site and not a mention of it there.
Weather Watch is certainly on the ball.
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December 16, 2012 – FIJI - Fijian authorities scrambled to evacuate tourists and residents in low-lying areas Sunday as a monster cyclone threatened the Pacific nation with “catastrophic damage” after causing devastation in Samoa. At least four people were killed when Cyclone Evan slammed into Samoa and the toll was expected to rise with a search launched for eight men missing on three fishing boats. Only one survivor has been found, said the New Zealand Rescue Co-ordination Centre, which is overseeing the search. After crossing Samoa, Evan intensified as it ploughed through the Pacific and forecasters said destructive winds could reach nearly 300 kilometers per hour (186 miles per hour) by the time it hits Fiji early Monday. Government officials fear it could be as devastating as Cyclone Kina, which killed 23 people and left thousands homeless in 1993. Squally thunderstorms were expected to flood low-lying areas while coastal villages were at risk of sea flooding, authorities said. The international airport at Nadi was packed as 850 tourists were removed from luxury resorts on outlying islands, “The safety of the tourists was paramount,” said Fiji Tourism and Hotel Association managing director Dixon Seeto, but with most flights booked the holidaymakers had little chance of getting out before the storm. Fiji’s main airline Air Pacific either cancelled or rescheduled its Monday flights while other airlines said they were closely monitoring the situation. Philip Duncan, head analyst with the WeatherWatch.co.nz meteorological service, said Fiji faced the prospect of flash flooding and mudslides. “Gusts may end up climbing to 280 kilometers per hour or greater around the centre of Evan,” Duncan said. “Some small, low-lying communities and resorts may suffer catastrophic damage and some small islands may be entirely submerged as the storm and storm surge roll by.” More than 200 evacuation centers have been opened and Information Ministry permanent secretary Sharon Smith-Johns said people at risk should move. “People living in low-lying areas should consider moving to higher ground or evacuation centres,” she said. Fiji’s military leader Voreqe Bainimarama has warned the storm is an “impending disaster” and offers of international aid have already been received. Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr said Canberra was offering financial assistance as well as expert personnel and supplies. The cyclone is expected to hit the northern part of Fiji early Monday with strong winds and heavy rain striking several hours earlier, said Nadi Weather Office duty forecaster Amit Singh. “The cyclone is not going to slow down. It is intensifying,” he said. Meanwhile, it could be some days before the full extent of the damage in Samoa is known because of the difficulty reaching outlying islands. About 4,500 people remain in emergency shelters after Evan destroyed houses and damaged electricity and fresh water supplies, Samoan officials said. Prime Minister Tuilaepa Sailele also warned of possible food shortages next year because crops were destroyed. –BI
http://www.businessinsider.com/tourists-flee-residents-prepare-as-monster-cyclone-bears-down-on-fiji-2012-12
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From Weather Watch:
Severe tropical cyclone Evan is sliding against Fiji's north west corner with latest rain radar image from Fiji confirming the centre of the storm now hitting the north west coastline.
Reports of gusts exceeding 155km/h are also coming in from Nadi as the belt of hurricane force winds pushes into western Fiji.
WeatherWatch.co.nz says the cyclone doesn't have a clearly defined eye on the satellite images but rain radar cuts through the cloud and clearly shows an eye touching the north west coastline. The worst of the winds wrap around the so called 'eye' while inside the centre winds tend to be calm.
It's the inner eye where the air pressure plummets - estimates put the air pressure down around 945hPa although there are conflicting reports.
"The Fiji MetService site is overloading, which it doesn't fairly frequently and makes finding information very tricky" says head weather analyst Philip Duncan. "We often use more than once source and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre operated by the US Government is estimating Evan is now a category 5 cyclone".
However a strong category 4 cyclone is similar to a weak category 5. "People shouldn't get hooked on the category status, as regardless this is a major cyclone at the highest end".
Mr Duncan says Evan is currently crossing the Yasawa islands and will continue to blast Nadi for the rest of the day.
The storm surge alone is expected to completely inundate some coastal communities, resorts and low lying islands says WeatherWatch.co.nz.
Mr Duncan says Evan will continue to bring torrential rain, huge seas and hurricane force winds to Fiji for the next 24 to 36 hours before it heads south towards New Zealand and weakens significantly.
"We have high confidence Evan will make it to New Zealand but he will be unravelling by then. If he unravels before making landfall in New Zealand we can expect a couple of wet, windy, days in the north. If it unravels over the upper North Island we may have some severe weather warnings around Christmas Eve".
WeatherWatch.co.nz says more will be known about Evan's impact on New Zealand around Tuesday or Wednesday but that either way the storm was expected to fizzle out around Christmas Day or Boxing Day.
(http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Evan6.jpg)
NZ Herald 8.30pm
Thousands of Fijians and holidaymakers in the Pacific Island nation are preparing for the worst of Tropical Cyclone Evan to batter the country.
Power has been cut sporadically to large portions of Fiji for much of the day as Evan made landfall packing winds of more than 155km/h, and water supplies are disrupted.
Families in Lautoka, which has bore the brunt of the cyclone, have reportedly lost all their belongings after winds either blew away their homes or roofs.
A resident in the area said that of the 18 homes in his area, only five houses remained standing, Fiji Village reported.
Thousands of Fijians and up to 400 New Zealanders were waiting out the storm in evacuation centres.
This morning Cyclone Evan, which was upgraded to a category 4 cyclone, reached the northern island of Vanua Levu as its winds buffeted populated areas.
It then slid along Fiji's northwest corner, bringing with it gusts in excess of 155km/h.
(http://static.stuff.co.nz/1355712930/679/8090679_600x400.jpg)
(http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/4432620-16x9-700x394.jpg)