New Zealand Local Weather Forum
Archive Library => 2012 => Archives => Forecasts & Warnings 2012 => Topic started by: OhauitiWeather on November 05, 2012, 12:28:41 AM
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Issued by MetService 1:44pm Sunday 4 Nov 2012
Tuesday Wednesday
North Island, mainly fine but isolated showers in the north and east. Early frosts in sheltered places. South Island, fine, apart from a few afternoon and evening showers about the ranges over the northern half. Early frosts in the south.
Thursday
North Island, mainly fine but isolated showers in the north. South Island, fine, apart from a few afternoon and evening showers inland.
Friday
Mainly fine but isolated showers in eastern North Island.
Chatham Islands
Showers. Strong southwesterlies, gradually easing on Wednesday and Thursday.
Updated at or before:
6:00am, 12:30pm, 4:15pm, 10:00pm daily.
Updates/amendments may be issued at any time.
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On Monday a weakening southerly front moves up the country affecting regions mostly in the east, there could be a few showers along the west of the North Island also. It’s not a major southerly front but will mean temperatures to start the week will be a bit cool. Meanwhile an anticyclone sits in the Tasman Sea.
Tuesday sees the anticyclone moves over the country with it’s centre largely sitting over the South Island, an easterly airflow will lie over the North Island and there is a chance due to a small trough that a few showers may affect Bay Of Plenty northwards during the day particularly in the afternoon.
Wednesday looks sunny over the whole country with light winds for most although for the upper South Island and the upper North Island in particular a few isolated afternoon showers may get going due to afternoon heating causing some slight instability in the atmosphere, these showers may be more likely in inland sheltered areas like the Waikato and Nelson Lakes region.
On Thursday a northwesterly airflow develops over New Zealand with the anticyclone getting squeezed and pushed to the north of the North Island, naturally this means warmer weather for eastern regions of both islands with showers developing on the West Coast of the South Island. Friday sees northwesterlies continuing over the North Island while at this stage a low looks to form over the South Island on a front.
WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/next-week-and-how-it-shaping
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This is an update to how the week ahead is looking from yesterdays story, things are looking fairly similar however the front later in the week may take a little longer to come together and the northwesterly airflow preceding it doesn't look to be as strong.
(http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/featured_story/picture-18453.jpg)
A cold front will brush north over the country tomorrow mainly affecting eastern coastlines of both islands. There won’t be a lot of impact from the front however it will bring quite cool temperatures and a few snow flurries on the South Island ranges inland to about 500m, any accumulations will not be large however. An anticyclone sitting in the Tasman Sea quickly pushes in overnight.
Come Tuesday the remnants of the front linger about the east coast of the North Island and a small trough hangs back over the upper North Island north of Bay Of Plenty and potentially the upper South Island about Tasman, this may bring a few showers mainly in the afternoon. The rest of the South Island receives mainly settled weather on Tuesday after a possible light frost in some inland areas.
On Wednesday and Thursday the anticyclone mentioned above remains in control over the country, expect mostly sunny weather with sea breezes during the afternoons in coastal areas. Perhaps the low risk of a isolated shower in inland areas of both islands north of about Canterbury, the slightly higher risk of the two will be about the North Island.
Similar weather for the North Island on Friday as on Thursday however the South Island starts to develop a westerly airflow ahead of a front which moves onto the lower south later in the day.
Homepage image / 7th November 1pm rain map - weathermap.co.nz
WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/front-start-week-then-settled
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yes, potential for 'easterly surge type showers' tomorrow
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Just as we get over one front today, which is mainly affecting southern and eastern areas, there's another more significant front approaching this weekend.
At the moment WeatherWatch.co.nz believes mild northwesterlies ahead of the associated front should push temperatures up for many areas on both Friday and Saturday.
As it sweeps northwards the cold southerly air behind it is likely to bring rain out east and in the south with snow to low levels and the windchill could dive below zero in exposed places.
November is continuing to see these fronts skirting across the country and the southerlies behind them have been colder than usual for this late in Spring.
The concern for growers is that the risk of frost remains as the cold air hangs about following the passage of these frontal systems.
Temperatures this week and possibly next week look well below average under clear skies with little wind or calm conditions in between the fronts moving in.
WeatherWatch.co.nz is keeping a close eye on the situation.
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...t-approaches-weekend
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For areas north of the Bay Of Plenty the weather for the most part will be sunny tomorrow with some cloud, winds will be light from the south or southeast. Mid afternoon however through into the evening easterly winds will develop on a trough which will likely bring a few showers that then clear at night.
(http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/featured_story/picture-18482.jpg)
Morning showers clear in Gisborne, remaining mostly cloudy along the east coast of the North Island during the day with cool southerlies. In the afternoon a few sunny areas may develop.
For the west of both islands from Taranaki through to Fiordland it will be mostly sunny tomorrow with light winds, some areas of cloud at times.
Any morning showers clear about the Kaikoura coast, sunny areas develop about Canterbury northwards along the South Islands east coast from mid morning.
A mostly sunny day can be expect in Southland and Central Otago with light east to southeast breezes. Nearer the coast in Otago some cloud may hang about during the day but sunny spells will develop from morning, expect light southeasterlies there. Growers in Central Otago would be advised to monitor the frost situation tonight as it will likely get quite cold with –2 degree temperatures possible by dawn.
Homepage image / 6th November 1pm rain map - weathermap.co.nz
WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...frosts-tonight-south
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I remember last month many were crying out for settled weather in the North Island, October was bringing in quite a few northwest / southwest changes with cloud, showers and strong winds and was a tad cooler then normal. Settled weather was hard to come by. Well, from now onwards in the North Island through till perhaps even early next week those tears will certainly be drying up as an anticyclone about to centre over us tonight is set to bring some settled weather.
There will still be a few cobwebs to blow out tomorrow for some North Island areas, Northland may have an early shower any of which will clear. And during the day the east coast will have cool southerlies with the odd shower during the day which clear mostly in the evening, everywhere else will be sunny. Thursday sees sunny weather in all areas although the odd shower could still cling to Gisborne due to the airflow around the high catching the region, and perhaps the risk of an afternoon shower due to some cloud build ups about Auckland otherwise dry.
Friday will see sunny weather in most places although there could be some cloud at times between Kapiti and Taranaki. Saturday has the flow tending a little more west to southwest as the anticyclone mentioned above begins to move over the top of the country and to the east, and this is where a slight hiccup could occur. A chance of antcyclonic gloom in some western areas from Kapiti right through to Northland, sunny areas may burn through in the afternoon however. Elsewhere will have sunny skies on Saturday.
Sunday will be settled in the north also although there could be plenty of cloud about morning and night in most places, winds will be light with afternoon sea breezes in coastal areas.
As for the South Island I’ll cover this in more detail tomorrow, suffice to say conditions are looking quite settled also. A front and low combination initially tipped to approach later on Thursday is now slowly approaching in the weekend and will start to bring cloud and showers to the west and far south then. There is a slight hint that the main impact of this low may not be felt till mid next week as another high developing out east of the country later on Sunday keeps the low in the Tasman Sea.
By weather analyist Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...tled-through-weekend
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Now to turn our attention to the mainland after yesterday’s outlook for the North Island. Conditions are looking very settled tomorrow with light winds and afternoon sea breezes in coastal areas, some cloud is possible morning and night. From afternoon some cloud will move into Fiordland as a northerly airflow develops.
(http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/featured_story/picture-18530.jpg)
Friday is quite settled also and will be nice and warm particularly out east as a northwesterly airflow develops with a low forming in the Tasman Sea, expect some high cloud however. There will be some cloud spreading north along the West Coast during the day, drizzle patches develop about Fiordland in the morning turn to rain at night.
Saturday sees wet weather out west with northerlies, high cloud in the east with northwesterly winds as the low mentioned above deepens and moves a little to the south. Southland will be cloudy with the odd brief shower at times, mainly just on the coast itself.
Sunday is a little hard to ascertain, a broad area of low pressure spreads over the South Island so plenty of cloud is likely with areas of sun during the afternoon. Also watch for random isolated showers too especially in inland areas.
The pattern for early next week is looking a bit hard to nail down due to quite varying scenarios with different weather models, keep an eye on WeatherWatch.co.nz for future stories and forecasts on how things will shape up in the days ahead.
Homepage image / 1pm 9th November rain map - weathermap.co.nz
By weather analyist Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...h-island-settled-now
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The weather for Friday is looking to be nice and sunny across most of the country again, very similar weather to today and a risk of late afternoon and evening showers again from about Auckland northwards in the North Island.
(http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/featured_story/picture-18556.jpg)
WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasts say warm temperatures are likely to develop inland about the east coast of the South Island as the airflow tends northwest, there may also be some high cloud develop in the afternoon.
While the airflow will tend northwest over the South Island the actual winds at the surface are still likely to be a light northeasterly particularly near the coast.
Fiordland will see cloudy skies with northerlies, drizzle patches there from midday possibly turning to rain at night.
The anticyclone over us currently is set to loose its influence over the weekend as a low pressure system and front combination moves in from the Tasman Sea, still it may remain settled to some extent particularly in the North Island till early next week.
Homepage image / 9th November 1pm rain map - weathermap.co.nz
WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/stunner-way-friday