New Zealand Local Weather Forum
Archive Library => 2012 => Archives => Forecasts & Warnings 2012 => Topic started by: Te Puke Weather on September 02, 2012, 08:57:47 AM
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Issued by The MetService (http://www.metservice.com/national/index)
Monday
Rain spreading to most places, with some heavy falls, then easing to showers from Northland to Taranaki across to Hawkes Bay, and also the far south.
Tuesday
North Island, showers, but fine in Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. South Island, showers in the north and about the south coast. Becoming mostly fine elsewhere.
Wednesday
North Island, showers in the north and west becoming few and far between. Fine elsewhere. South Island, rain or showers in the west and morning rain in the south. Fine elsewhere.
Thursday
North Island, fine apart from cloudy periods in the west, but mostly cloudy from Taranaki to Kapiti. South Island, rain in the west becoming heavy south of Hokitika. Fine elsewhere with high cloud, but late rain possible in Southland.
Friday
North Island, drizzle in western areas south of Auckland and mainly fine elsewhere. South Island, heavy rain in the west and high cloud elsewhere.
Chatham Islands
Showery on Wednesday with westerly gales. Mainly fine on Thursday and Friday with fresh northwesterlies.
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From Weatherwatch:
First week of spring will be unsettled
North Islanders won’t see a lot of rain today. Even some South Islanders will have rain-free hours during the day today.
But that will all change as we head into tonight and tomorrow.
High pressure is tying up a frontal boundary today as it attempts to move from the Tasman to the Pacific.
That means that the rain associated with the front will be slow to work its way across the country as well. Rain is already falling over western regions of the Mainland. By tonight, most of the South Island will be seeing a pretty good chance for rain. So, will the western and northern regions of the North Island.
As the high slides off to our northeast tomorrow, the front will get a chance to finish its eastward track across Aotearoa. In doing so, it will spread rain across both islands.
So, look for a pretty wet Monday.
On Tuesday, showers are likely to linger early in the day about both islands. By Tuesday evening, whatever shower activity is left will be confined mostly to the western South Island.
Same thing for Wednesday. A rather persistent onshore flow should keep shower chances going for the West Coast and Nelson. There will also be shower chances along the coastal sections of Southland.
On Thursday, another spring-like front starts to approach from the west. That will keep shower chances going for the Mainland’s western regions.
On Friday, that front will keep rain chances going for the western South Island whilst bringing precipitation chances to the western North Island as well.
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Monday
Overcast with rain. High of 15C. Breezy. Winds from the NNE at 20 to 25 km/h. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 24.6 mm possible.
Monday Night
Overcast with rain, then a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 5C. Breezy. Winds from the WNW at 15 to 25 km/h. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 2.8 mm possible.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain in the afternoon. Fog early. High of 14C. Windy. Winds from the West at 25 to 35 km/h. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 0.8 mm possible.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 4C. Breezy. Winds from the West at 15 to 20 km/h.
Wednesday
Partly cloudy. High of 15C. Windy. Winds from the WSW at 25 to 30 km/h.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then overcast. Fog overnight. Low of 6C. Breezy. Winds from the West at 15 to 20 km/h.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then overcast. Fog early. High of 16C. Breezy. Winds from the West at 20 to 25 km/h.
Thursday Night
Overcast. Fog overnight. Low of 9C. Breezy. Winds from the WNW at 10 to 20 km/h.
Friday
Overcast with a chance of rain. Fog early. High of 15C. Breezy. Winds from the NW at 15 to 25 km/h. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 3.0 mm possible.
Friday Night
Overcast with a chance of rain. Low of 10C. Breezy. Winds from the NW at 15 to 20 km/h. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 5.3 mm possible.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 15C. Windy. Winds from the NNW at 25 to 35 km/h. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 5.6 mm possible.
Saturday Night
Overcast with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 7C. Breezy. Winds from the NNW at 15 to 25 km/h.
Sunday
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 14C. Windy. Winds from the WNW at 20 to 30 km/h. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 5.1 mm possible.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 3C. Breezy. Winds from the WNW at 10 to 20 km/h.
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The first work week of spring is sure starting off wet. A big blob of rain has been spreading over the North Island during the overnight. Even places that aren’t getting rain now, like Gisborne and Hawkes Bay, will eventually end up with rain, probably before midday.
The top of the South Island is also getting a bit wet this morning.
Tomorrow, most of us will see lingering chances for showers as a developing low off our east coast helps to keep things unsettled.
But on Wednesday, a large ridge of high pressure will slide in from the northwest. That will begin to dry out the North Island.
However, the currently forecasted position and shape of the high sets up a persistent onshore flow for the western regions of both islands.
That means that despite the influence of this high (or rather, because of it) the upper NI, including Auckland, will continue to see some shower chances on Wednesday. Although the chance will be greatly diminished from what will be seen today and tomorrow.
However, for the western regions of the South Island there will still be some pretty good chances for showers.
On Thursday, the southwest flow over upper North Island begins to turn a bit more westerly. That bring the showers chances there to an end.
On the Mainland, however, that persistent flow will continue to shower chances going for the western regions. Even some heavy rain will be possible about the West Coast late on Thursday into Friday.
Friday will likely be another dry day for much of the North Island, although the lower sections could start to see some showers as another spring front starts to develop and advance on the country.
That same front will bring yet another wet day to the western Mainland as we wrap up the first work-week of Spring.
By WeatherWatch.co.nz Analyst Howard Joseph
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/high-will-try-keep-ni-late-week
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Philip Duncan and nzherald.co.nz bring you the latest on the deluge crossing the North Island and what lies ahead for the rest of the working week - basically a mix of wind, rain and sun... sounds very much like spring!
Link to Video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=rS7xwZW-GMA
-Weatherwatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/weather-video-a-wet-start-week-windy-weather-way
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Strong westerlies remain over central New Zealand tody and early
Wednesday. This watch is for the possibility of westerlies gusting to
severe gale strength at times in Central Hawkes Bay and northern
Wairarapa through to overnight Tuesday. In addition, a deep low
should pass just south of the South Island this afternoon followed by
gale west to southwesterlies. This watch also covers the possibility
that these gales could gust to severe strength at times about coastal
areas from Southland to the Otago Peninsula from late Tuesday
afternoon through to midday Wednesday.
Later Wednesday the flow over the country turns northwest and
strengthens over the South Island. This watch now covers the
possibility of northwesterlies gusting to severe gale at times in
inland parts of Canterbury, Otago and Southland from late Wednesday
through Thursday.
Metservice (http://www.metservice.com/national/index)
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Late last week on Friday I mentioned the possibility of strong northwesterly winds mid to late this week developing over the South Island, that does look like coming to fruition from tomorrow.
Northwesterly winds will be fairly strong across the South Island tomorrow mainly from afternoon with inland areas getting the biggest gusts, winds could reach gale force at times in exposed areas like the Rakaia Gorge for example. The winds are likely to ease later overnight however picking up again on Thursday afternoon.
The result of these northwesterly winds will be fairly familiar to most, a warm day out east in both Islands with temperatures getting into the high teens. Skies will likely be cloudy on the West Coast of the South Island tomorrow with showers at times south of Westport. In the North Island for most places bar Wellington and the east coast winds will be breezy from the west or southwest, expect cloudy areas and some sun with the low risk of a lingering shower about western coastlines.
In Wellington tomorrow winds will gusty from the northwest with some cloud and areas of sun. From Thursday through to Saturday maybe even Sunday winds about Wellington are likely to be quite strong from the northwest gale force at times.
By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/strong-northwesterlies-are-way
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At the moment over New Zealand there is a strong west to northwesterly airflow and it is likely to last through to the weekend when winds change more west to southwesterly on Sunday, this is the result of an anticyclone to the north of the country and depressions in the southern ocean. During this time westerly quarter winds could reach gale force in exposed areas.
WeatherWatch.co.nz analyst Aaron Wilkinson mentions, “The likely candidates for these strong westerly quarter winds which will likely reach gale force at times will be about the coast in Southland, the Catlins, inland parts of Canterbury and Marlborough and also the lower North Island i.e. Cook Strait in particular”. Mr Wilkinson goes on to say that about the coast in Canterbury and Marlborough northwesterly winds are likely to be strong also during this period however they can ease off more often at times.
Heavy rain on the West Coast of the South Island looks likely also due to the westerly airflow, periods of heavy rain will develop tomorrow afternoon and it will last through till early Sunday when the flow changes more southwesterly. Rain may continue to be heavy about South Westland and Fiordland on Sunday and Monday finally easing Tuesday next week.
Mr Wilkinson says the West Coast could experience totals of up to 250 maybe 350mm from now through till Tuesday next week. Thunderstorms are likely on the coast also particularly later on Thursday then again early on Saturday and due to the shear and winds involved a tornado is always possible too during these times.
WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/windy-weather-and-heavy-rain-west-south-island-through-till-sunday
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Tomorrow we can expect similar weather as we have had today, high cloud will move out of Canterbury and more sunnier weather will prevail with quite mild temperatures. Winds will be strong from the west or northwest across the country, easing in the South Island late afternoon or evening especially in eastern coastal areas.
(http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/featured_story/picture-16764.jpg)
The North Island can expect mostly cloudy skies in the west however with a few showers south of Taranaki, the odd shower may develop south of Auckland in the afternoon however they will be few and far between. Eastern areas of the North Island will get dry weather although there will be plenty of high cloud. A mix of sun and clouds can be expected in the Bay Of Plenty.
For some excitement the West Coast of the South Island should get some thundery weather overnight tonight, lightning is currently really going off in Fiordland and a few strikes are developing in South Westland.
Homepage image / 7th September midday rain map - weathermap.co.nz
By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/similar-weather-tomorrow-some-changes
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Fronts are starting to line up in the Tasman sea heading on their way towards the West Coast of the South Island, already lightning has started in Fiordland in the last hour and this area of unstable activity will move northwards along the coast through this afternoon and evening.
This coming Saturday mostly later in the day and during Sunday thunderstorms are likely to occur, especially on the West Coast of the South Island again and western parts of the North Island and perhaps elsewhere so keep an eye out for unstable skies.
Currently the warmest spot in the country is Hawkes Bay on 22 degrees, but right along the east coasts of both islands most regions are not far behind. Northwesterly winds are likely to ramp up this evening and tonight over the South Island and lower North Island with gales in exposed areas.
Apart from the rain entering Fiordland and parts of South Westland it is actually dry in most places, a fair amount of the North Island is not having a bad day at all although westerlies are a little breezy with some cloud in western areas.
By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/fronts-approaching-tasman-sea