New Zealand Local Weather Forum
Archive Library => 2012 => Archives => Forecasts & Warnings 2012 => Topic started by: Derek on June 22, 2012, 10:36:58 AM
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From Monday's midday chart on Ogimet - there's a massive low to the east of Fiordland. On current models this deepens over the next couple of days, pressure in it's centre gets down around 960 hPa. It moves across to the east and a little further south - the red arrow I've scribbled on the chart gives a rough idea where it's going and gets to by Wednesday.
As this thing goes across, gale force westerlies along the west coast are indicated, more rain and snow likely too. Its going to leave us with a strong south to southwesterly flow beginning on Tuesday, so could get very cold.
As ever with big low pressure systems, things can change rapidly, so we'll have a look at what the models show this thing is doing in the next day or so to get a better idea of this is still looking as potentially nasty as it is, better, or nastier.
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could be just GFS having a bit of fun
not showing up as intense as that on other models
(other models are showing though a strong to gale W->SW flow next week though (and have been for a few days now (its the trend in the models that is important)
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this system does look like its going to bring alot of snow to places exposed to the SW
(ie southland and parts of otago and the central NI mountains)
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Have I lost a month somewhere???
I thought it was still June..... or are you doing a Ken Ring prediction?
Actually this post was really just an excuse to bring up my ton and full member status :)
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huh?
the prediction is for next tuesday
which is still june...
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Ok its headed the 25th July.
I will change it :)
edit - 2 minutes later.... Topic date changed from July 2012 to June 2012 - JL
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Ooops, sorry my blunder in the original ::)
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All good Derek, its the content that is the important part.
@ Tony, well done on your 100 :)
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Maybe I should get ready for the snow. This time we might just get some. LOL.
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I think we're spared from any major devastation from this one... :)
The low is showing now as not as intense and tracks a little further to the south. It still likely going to set up a strong southwesterly flow over the country and bring some cold conditions and snow, plus some wetness in places - but not as severe as the charts were looking on Friday.
Thursday and Friday this week could end up being reasonably good....