New Zealand Local Weather Forum
Archive Library => 2012 => Archives => Forecasts & Warnings 2012 => Topic started by: JennyLeez on April 18, 2012, 09:14:43 AM
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Post your location or national forecasts for this weekend below.
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Looking at three different forecast models for this weekend, and as usual there is some discrepancy even over 4 days from now (Wed evening through to Sunday). One forecast has rain on Sunday after fine days, but two others only indicate rain perhaps in Southland.
Overall, though, more of the same with a huge High sitting over the majority of NZ until Monday as it finally departs to the east.
So for Northland - more nor easters with cloud and morning fog and cool mornings in sheltered places.
The rest of the North Island, (similar above on the East Coast - similar cloudy mornings) - the rest of NI - brighter days with sou-easterlies till Friday, replaced with Northerlies as the High passes to the East more from Saturday through the weekend. The Northerlies will bring warmer daytime temps but cooler mornings especially in sheltered areas. Northland will still have cloudy days.
The South Island, although mainly fine and cool overnight inland areas, will have the usual mix of southerlies to south-westerlies for four days inland while the west Coast will have fine days, with westerlies getting stronger to Saturday esp around Fiordland with likely cloud setting in on Sunday and Monday especially along the Southern coastline of Southland with some showers possible.
Canterbury will have mainly fine steady weather and fairly light sou-westerly winds through to Saturday, temperatures moderate and cool overnight in sheltered areas.
The Forecast images with 6hr rainfall and synoptic maps show a swirling effect around the large High as it slowly progresses to the east and Sub Tropical Lows over by Queensland are blocked from moving to the east but travel southwards around the High. It is the size and strength of these "stalled" Highs that is keeping NZ in fine weather. There are very deep Lows passing by in the 60deg latitudes - down to 960hpa and hardly affect us except for stronger westerly winds around Southland.
They do indicate however, that there may be rain sweeping up over NZ from Tuesday through Wednesday next week :( Although some gardens are starting to get dry so will welcome the rains...
These images are both of Saturday 21st 12:00 but from different models. The top is an amalgamation of the US GFS model and the european ECMWF models.
(http://www.inmanavenue.com/NZForecasts/rain-swp-Sat21st04.gif)
C/- MetVUE.com : http://metvuw.com/forecast/forecast1.php?type=rain®ion=swp&tim=24
and:
(http://www.inmanavenue.com/NZForecasts/12042200_1800Sat1200.gif)
http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=nz&MENU=0000000000&CONT=aupa&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201204180000&VAR=pr06&HH=96&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
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Wairoa, Nuhaka and Mahia Beach.
Looking hopeful.
Friday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 17C. Winds less than 5 km/h. Chance of rain 20%.
(http://wairoa.net/weather/forecast/images/hi_shwrs20.jpg)
Friday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 9C. Winds from the NE at 10 to 15 km/h shifting to the NNW after midnight.
Saturday
Clear. High of 18C. Winds less than 5 km/h.
(http://wairoa.net/weather/forecast/images/skc.jpg)
Saturday Night
Clear. Low of 9C. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 15 km/h shifting to the NW after midnight.
Sunday
Clear in the morning, then mostly cloudy. High of 19C. Winds from the NW at 5 to 15 km/h shifting to the ENE in the afternoon.
(http://wairoa.net/weather/forecast/images/sct.jpg)
Sunday Night
Clear. Low of 9C. Winds from the North at 10 to 15 km/h.