*Easter* Weekend Forecast 6th - 9th April 2012

[JennyLeez]

Bleak week for many across the north Island
A fairly turbulent week is likely for the upper North Island as the latest data continues to roll in this morning. It's not all wild weather however surges of wind and rain are expected.

Easterly quarter winds of gale force or higher strength are still likely to impact in exposed areas off and on throughout the week and into the Easter break with some rain from time to time with the chance of heavy downpours.

It appears to be coming in waves and the heaviest falls are still looking to be setting in tomorrow and then an easing later on Wednesday but then another surge is possible as Good Friday and Easter Saturday arrive.

The models have been picking varying conditions for different areas of the upper north over recent days but one consistent thing has been the winds which are on the cards to exceed 100kph in peak gusts from tomorrow and parts of Wedneday and then another peak period of high winds at the beginning of the Easter break.

"At the moment it doesn't look good for the start of the school holidays and the beginning of the Easter break " says WeatherWatch.co.nz weather analyst Richard Green.
"Not necessarily the entire North Island but much of it looks soggy and windy especially in nothern and eastern areas which isn't the best news for those wanting a decent break but first we've got the deal with tomorrow and Wednesday which isn't shaping up the best ".

WeatherWatch.co.nz believes not for the first time in the last couple of months that much of the South Island should escape the worst of the weather, especially over the southern half with relatively dry and calm conditions.
Weatherwatch

Further reading from 3 News Online:
Heavy rain, strong winds, slips and flooding are forecast to hit the North Island this week and windy weather and showers could remain over Easter weekend.
At least two tropical lows connected to the Fiji flooding are continuing to drift towards the upper North Island today WeatherWatch.co.nz head weather analyst Philip Duncan says.
He says mainly the north east of the North Island is in the firing line.
"We have bursts of heavy rain off and on for a number of days this week across the upper or eastern North Island, with places like East Cape, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay most exposed."
Mr Duncan says two lows directly north of New Zealand mean a week of wind and cloud for the entire North Island.
This is a similar forecast to last month in which strong winds from the easterly quarter blew across the North Island while the South Island stayed mostly settled.
Mr Duncan says the two lows will spread the wind and rain over a greater area, which reduces the severity of winds and the likelihood of severe weather warnings.
However he says easterlies can often cause pockets of damage which is what happened in March when properties in Bay of Plenty, Waikato, Central Plateau and Horowhenua were damaged.
"On top of the heavy rain in March we do expect further slips and flooding about East Cape, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. Add on top of that dangerous surf and we could see coastal erosion too,” Mr Duncan says.
MetService forecasts a high chance of heavy rain in East Cape, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay which could lead to slips and flooding, but WeatherWatch.co.nz says the rain will be off and on all week and there will also be significant dry spells.
"This is a very messy system - it's not one big wall of rain, it's pockets of torrential downpours with pockets of severe gales - each day we're learning more and more since first predicting this tropical system seven days ago,” Mr Duncan says.
He believes most main centres in the north will avoid major problems and does not expect a repeat of the serious flash flooding in Fiji, but says there is some risk for flash flooding in parts of the rural north east of the North Island.
The windy weather will continue over the North Island up until Easter with computer models predicting a new low forming in the Tasman Sea late this week and weekend, Mr Duncan says.
It could also potentially bring more wind and showers to the upper North Island over Easter weekend.
In the South Island, the West Coast, Central Otago and Southland are expected to have the sunniest and most settled weather in the country this week.

3 News Online

Forecast for Easter Friday below:

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[TokWW]

Easter Weekend Fri – Sun

The first two images are from two different computational datasets: the “aus” prefix ones are from GFS data from the US, while the MetVUW ones are from NZ but using the ECMWF from the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts database and hence you can see different levels of activity on Friday below in the Friday 12:00 NZST Synoptic MSLP and rainfall images:



These show the current midweek system still active.  Giving finer weather again in the SI with inland clear skies but the still more rain and strong winds in Northland and the East Coast around Gisborne (and Wairoa).  The weather now becomes quite unstable as the centre of this system – the sub-tropical low traverses to the west to the Tasman as it is blocked by the large slow moving High which continues to straddle the SI in a diagonal from Sydney to the Chatham Islands.  This forces the Low backwards against the normal motion of the weather systems relative to the earth’s rotation to end up close to the tip of Cape Reinga by Sunday.

Friday

On the East Coast of the NI there are strong  South Easterlies bringing rain from the Wairarapa through to the Bay Of Plenty.  They may be more like dry northerlies from Auckland to Northland with fairer skies but they will be strong to 40km/hr in exposed places.  More moderate southerlies in the South Island will bring generally fine weather there with some clouds along the east coast.


Saturday



Here we see the South Island getting more settled weather and less winds but variable, generally N to NW.  Southeasterlies will be present in the Cook Strait and stronger Southeasterlies over the east coast of the NI from Coromandel to Northland.  Possibly rain along the east Coast from Gisborne to North Cape.
Strong southerlies will hit exposed places in the Taranaki region but it will remain mainly cloudy and fine.

The SI may have cloudy and cool East Coast regions with southeasterlies north of Christchurch.  The West Coast, Otago and Southland will have pleasant and possibly Norwest weather.  Canterbury may even have Norwesters too, South of Christchurch.

Sunday



The rain now covers the north of the North Island from Napier north including the Waikato.  This ST Low has now traversed westwards to lie over North Cape.  Southeasterlies will prevail north of the BOP while Northeasterlies will cover down to the Wairarapa.  The Taranaki and Wellington region should see lighter winds and finer days.

The High that was spread across the South Island has now split into two weaker entities with mainly light Northerly winds over the SI.  There could be some frosts in sheltered inland areas.  Temperatures on the whole will be moderate 18-22deg days in the South Island over Easter.

The West Coast of the SI and Waikanae to Wanganui may be the places to be.

[Mark]

Your official 2012 Easter weekend forecast

WeatherWatch.co.nz, FuseworksApril 3, 2012, 11:15 am

Easter appears to start off windy and changeable for much of the North Island but as the Easter break continues the latter half appears a little more settled than the first half.

While another sub-tropical low is expected to lie just near Northland the guidance suggests it may only be a shallow low - one to watch but not one to be concerned about at this stage.

Good Friday

At this point it appears to bring further windy east to southeasterlies over the North Island which could be up to gale force about parts of the Far North, Gisborne, Taranaki and Wellington.

Rain is likely to be heavy at times about Gisborne and Hawkes Bay however it should ease off later in the day or at night. Now there's also a chance areas north of Auckland may get some localised downpours throughout the day as well.

The South Island should be mostly dry with light to moderate easterly quarter winds with some cloud at times about the coast north of about Christchurch with a risk of drizzle first thing or in the evening.

Cloudy areas and the odd brief shower is possible at times about the Marlborough Sounds and northern Tasman with gusty southeasterlies on the cards.

Saturday

Windy southeasterlies should ease across the North Island during Saturday with mostly cloudy conditions with the odd shower at times however more persistent rain along the east coast north of Hawkes Bay some heavy falls are possible again in the Far North but should ease later.

Mostly dry and sunny weather is anticipated once more in the South Island, southeasterlies will ease across the Nelson and Marlborough regions however northeasterlies may indeed pick up along the east coast with the chance of some cloud.

Cloud is also likely to thicken up about Fiordland later in the day with increasing northerlies.

Easter Sunday

More cloud is set to linger across the North Island however winds are expected to be lighter.

Pockets of rain or showers easing back and slowly drying up with drier spells increasing for many.

Some cloud and drizzle may cling on to northern areas of the South Island. Mostly sunny elsewhere however a weak southerly change may deliver cloud and drizzle for the east coast by evening.

Easter Monday

It's looking brighter for the North Island and any drizzle out east should depart the shores to reveal blue skies with just a few harmless clouds.

Cloud is set to increase during the day on the West Coast of the Mainland with some rain possible by the end of the day about Westland and Fiordland.

Generally sunny skies should take hold about Nelson and Marlborough. Along the east coast any cloud and drizzle should dry up and burn off with just some high cloud building up over Southland however remaining dry.

We'll have further updates throughout the week as we close in on the Easter break
- WeatherWatch.co.nz

[JennyLeez]

Thunderstorms now, well thats different !!!!

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR GISBORNE,HAWKES BAY
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 1933hrs 05-Apr-2012

BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY AND POSSIBLY THUNDERY RAIN FOR GISBORNE AND THE
RANGES OF HAWKES BAY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY

Rain over Gisborne and the Hawkes Bay ranges is expected to become
heavy again for a time overnight Thursday or early Friday, with
possible thunderstorms.  Rainfall amounts could reach 30 to 50mm in
some places during this period, with localised intensities up to 15mm
per hour in any thunderstorms.  This is below our warning criteria,
however, given the recent heavy rain and sodden conditions, rivers
may rise quickly and further slips and surface flooding are possible.