El Niño & la Nina.

[Mark]

A large pool of abnormally cold water sitting beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean is a clear sign that El Niño is on its last legs, with history suggesting a swift transition to La Niña could be on the cards in 2024.


The 2023-24 El Niño

The Pacific Ocean has been in an El Niño phase since mid-2023, characterised by abnormally warm water near the surface of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.


Based on traditional methods of classifying El Niño, this was a historically strong El Niño and ranked as one of the top 6 strongest El Niño events since 1950. However, there are clear signs that the 2023-24 El Niño has passed its peak.


Sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean have been cooling in recent months, dropping from their peak towards the end of last year. There is also a large pool of cooler-than-average water beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, showing that the lingering surface warmth is shallow.

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cold-water-deep-in-pacific-ocean-increases-likelihood-of-la-nina/1874193

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[rpk3]

Mark-


New reader here - I use ARC GIS to track patterns related to these phenomenon. I would like to connect with you for some datasets. I'm located in Southern New Mexico about 200 miles north of the LukesVille POE.

Personally, Im expecting a continuation of the NEW El Nino Cycle in NM and possible dust bowl conditions based on NEW gleissberg cycle or continuations thereof. MAJOR water grab entities (Example) NMRGCD are pooling various acequias and their counterparties because of this supposed drought to disrupt crop cycles and food production based on global cooling from 2028 to 2031. I do hope your not apposed to working with a "westerner" I have read your post for 10 years and have never subscribed. BUT NOW IS THE TIME.

I believe we are on a major climate shift that may very well lead to food shortages, famine and petulance because of the weather conditions and geopolitical framework.

Cheers mate!

[JennyLeez]

Welcome rpk3

Like me there will be many who will be interested in following this topic. Especially an 'outta towner' as so to speak
Most do not realise this possible pending crisis that could be looming.

I look forward to further reading.

Cheers
Jenny

[Mark]

Hi Good to have you on broad. On this matter, you could lead the discussion. You seem to know things I never heard of like "gleissberg" is this a Sun cycle?.
As for what I post they are just reposts from other sites But we all here would like to know more about if you can help us out.
I think El Niño & la Nina. are the main drivers of all weather ( apart from the Sun) and I see la Nina becoming more regular not El Niño as is the forecast.

[rpk3]

Thank you Jenny- Glad to be here-

Mark-  Just do a simple google of the gleissberg cycle's ( most say they are sun spot related)  I say it's more of a mathematical anomaly related to the cycle itself. Kinda like a yield curve effect of most modern stock markets related on math.
I do know this, I'm excited/worried to see what the new cycle does bring. I know there will be massive disasters related to the change. ESPECIALLY given the next 4 to 6 years... our winters will grow cooler with earlier snows (especially mount Cook in NZ)
Late winters lasting thought June in the Rockies in the USA and V I O L E N T hurricane seasons based on gravitational pull and timing from the larger planets.

I'm predicting LARGE and CATOSROPHIC damage this hurricane season and subsequent seasons progressing harder the next 2 years with massive buildups breaking west towards the USA.

El-Nino will continue to build harder and stronger than ever before. Although, I'm alone in thinking the cycles are growing closer together and will begin to flip flop with greater urgency than years and cycles past. Since I was a boy I've firmly believed the "vernal" equinox has been out of timing with our typical Gregorian calendars, especially given that the rest of the world are still on the year 2016 today.

I will continue to write more with my opinions, am building a personal webpage now that will dive deeper into my hypothesis's and scienced based data backing those speculative opinions I have.

Because in the end, MY OPINIONS are speculative at best. I can only speak for myself and decipher the data on how my left brain connect the rights aspect of reality

[Mark]

Hi, rpk3 As some here know iv been taking the Sun temp with a sensor in a jar since about 2008. It may a bit inaccurate but I done this the same way since 2008.
So what iv note is that this cycle is 1.8c colder than cycle 24. How much you can read into that I don't know. But I think its interesting.

[rpk3]

Fascinating- Mark.

Great insight on the "controlled" temp data collection-

Have you ever thought of a personal weather station?


Also, not sure if you've ever used SLIDER. Former Ramsdis GOES geospatial information based in Ft Collins Co.
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu

[Mark]

Hi rpk3,
Yes i have a personal weather station.
Dat can be seen on this site under Bishopdale chch.

I will have a look at your link later in day when I have some time. Thanks.

[Mark]

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared the El Niño event that gripped the Pacific Ocean over summer to be over.
The southern oscillation index has returned to a "neutral" state, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is in effect.
Nonetheless, the Bureau has forecast higher than median average temperatures for most of Australia in the coming months, including a chance for "unusually warm" conditions in parts of the east and the west
https://www.9news.com.au/national/el-nino-over-bureau-of-meteorology-declares/cbdc00e9-04a5-4c37-ba5f-fe8ecff7ef51

[rpk3]

Amazing Data Sets are coming across all weather stations. Amazing what global cooling is doing!